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股指(zhi)：

消息面上(shang)，財(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)部(bu)發(fa)布2024年中國財(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)執行情況報告(gao)。報告(gao)提(ti)到，2025年財(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)要更(geng)加(jia)積極，持(chi)(chi)續(xu)用力(li)、更(geng)加(jia)給力(li)，具(ju)體體現(xian)在五個方面：一(yi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)提(ti)高財(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)赤字率(lv)，加(jia)大支(zhi)出(chu)強度(du)、加(jia)快(kuai)支(zhi)出(chu)進度(du)。二是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)安(an)排更(geng)大規模(mo)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)府債(zhai)券，為穩增(zeng)長、調(diao)結構(gou)(gou)提(ti)供更(geng)多支(zhi)撐。三(san)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)大力(li)優(you)化(hua)(hua)支(zhi)出(chu)結構(gou)(gou)、強化(hua)(hua)精準投放，更(geng)加(jia)注重(zhong)惠(hui)民生、促消費、增(zeng)后勁。四是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)用力(li)防范(fan)化(hua)(hua)解重(zhong)點領域風險，促進財(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)平穩運行、可持(chi)(chi)續(xu)發(fa)展(zhan)。五是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)進一(yi)步增(zeng)加(jia)對地(di)方轉移支(zhi)付，增(zeng)強地(di)方財(cai)力(li)、兜牢“三(san)保”底線。中國人(ren)民銀(yin)行網站3月(yue)24日消息，為保持(chi)(chi)銀(yin)行體系流動(dong)性充裕，更(geng)好滿足(zu)不(bu)同參與機(ji)構(gou)(gou)差(cha)異化(hua)(hua)資金需求(qiu)，自本月(yue)起中期(qi)(qi)(qi)借(jie)貸便利（MLF）將采用固(gu)定數量、利率(lv)招(zhao)標(biao)、多重(zhong)價位中標(biao)方式開(kai)(kai)(kai)展(zhan)操作。權威專家(jia)表(biao)示，MLF不(bu)再有(you)統一(yi)的中標(biao)利率(lv)，標(biao)志著MLF利率(lv)的政(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)屬性完全(quan)退出(chu)。3月(yue)25日，中國人(ren)民銀(yin)行開(kai)(kai)(kai)展(zhan)4500億元(yuan)MLF操作，期(qi)(qi)(qi)限為1年期(qi)(qi)(qi)。本月(yue)MLF到期(qi)(qi)(qi)3870億元(yuan)，實現(xian)凈投放630億元(yuan)，是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)2024年7月(yue)以來(lai)MLF首次(ci)(ci)凈投放。海外方面，美(mei)國3月(yue)標(biao)普(pu)全(quan)球制造業PMI初值49.8，為3個月(yue)以來(lai)新低，預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)51.8，2月(yue)終(zhong)值52.7；服務業PMI初值54.3，預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)50.8，2月(yue)終(zhong)值51；綜(zong)合PMI初值53.5，2月(yue)終(zhong)值51.6。3月(yue)24日（周一(yi)），亞特蘭大聯儲(chu)主席博斯蒂(di)(di)克稱其目前(qian)預(yu)(yu)計今年僅(jin)降息一(yi)次(ci)(ci)，低于此前(qian)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的兩次(ci)(ci)降息，在接受采訪時博斯蒂(di)(di)克表(biao)示改變預(yu)(yu)測是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)因認為今年通脹將“非常不(bu)穩定”，且公司和企業開(kai)(kai)(kai)始(shi)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)更(geng)高通脹。

國(guo)債：

政策(ce)(ce)動態(tai)：3月(yue)(yue)21日一季度(du)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政策(ce)(ce)委(wei)員(yuan)會(hui)例會(hui)通稿公布。提到(dao)“研究創設新(xin)(xin)的(de)結構性(xing)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政策(ce)(ce)工具”，結合近(jin)期(qi)官方發(fa)(fa)(fa)言，短期(qi)內貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政策(ce)(ce)發(fa)(fa)(fa)力的(de)重(zhong)心可能是結構性(xing)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政策(ce)(ce)工具。“從宏觀審慎的(de)角度(du)觀察、評(ping)估(gu)債市運行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)情況，關(guan)注長期(qi)收益率(lv)(lv)的(de)變化，表明貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)政策(ce)(ce)對債券收益率(lv)(lv)的(de)關(guan)注度(du)上(shang)升(sheng)。公開市場(chang)凈(jing)(jing)投(tou)放3785億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。其中7天逆(ni)回購發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)14117億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，到(dao)期(qi)5262億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，MLF到(dao)期(qi)3870億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，國庫(ku)現金(jin)定存(cun)到(dao)期(qi)1200億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。下(xia)周(zhou)有14117億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)逆(ni)回購到(dao)期(qi)。資金(jin)利(li)率(lv)(lv)先上(shang)后(hou)下(xia)，DR001下(xia)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)5BP至1.75%，DR007下(xia)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)4.3BP至1.77%，R001下(xia)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)3.9BP至1.77%，R007下(xia)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)1.3BP至1.82%。3月(yue)(yue)LPR報價保持不變：1年期(qi)LPR為(wei)3.1%，5年期(qi)以上(shang)LPR為(wei)3.6%，均(jun)較上(shang)期(qi)維持不變。根據(ju)(ju)央(yang)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)數據(ju)(ju)，2月(yue)(yue)份企業新(xin)(xin)發(fa)(fa)(fa)放貸款（本(ben)(ben)外(wai)幣(bi)(bi)）加權(quan)平均(jun)利(li)率(lv)(lv)約3.3%，比上(shang)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)低約40個(ge)基點(dian)；個(ge)人(ren)住房新(xin)(xin)發(fa)(fa)(fa)放貸款（本(ben)(ben)外(wai)幣(bi)(bi)）加權(quan)平均(jun)利(li)率(lv)(lv)約3.1%，比上(shang)年同(tong)(tong)期(qi)低約70個(ge)基點(dian)。LPR保持不變符合預期(qi)。債券供給(gei)：本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)政府債發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)3792億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，到(dao)期(qi)655億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，凈(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)3137億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。其中國債凈(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)1819億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，地方債凈(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)1318億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)計(ji)(ji)劃顯示，下(xia)周(zhou)國債凈(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)2445億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，地方債凈(jing)(jing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)3067億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)新(xin)(xin)增專項債342億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，累計(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)量6963億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)進度(du)15.8%，下(xia)周(zhou)計(ji)(ji)劃發(fa)(fa)(fa)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)1327億(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。

貴金(jin)屬(shu)：

美國(guo)3月(yue)標普全球制造業(ye)(ye)PMI初(chu)值49.8，為(wei)3個(ge)月(yue)以來新低，預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)51.8，2月(yue)終值52.7；服務業(ye)(ye)PMI初(chu)值54.3，預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)50.8，2月(yue)終值51；綜合PMI初(chu)值53.5，2月(yue)終值51.6。3月(yue)24日（周一），亞特蘭大聯儲主席博(bo)斯(si)蒂(di)(di)克(ke)稱其目前預(yu)(yu)計今年僅降息一次，低于(yu)此(ci)前預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)的兩(liang)次降息，在接受采訪(fang)時博(bo)斯(si)蒂(di)(di)克(ke)表示(shi)改變預(yu)(yu)測是(shi)因(yin)認(ren)為(wei)今年通(tong)脹(zhang)將“非常(chang)不(bu)穩(wen)定(ding)”，且公(gong)司和(he)企業(ye)(ye)開(kai)始預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)更高(gao)通(tong)脹(zhang)。

螺(luo)紋(wen)：2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)3月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)(xun)，重(zhong)點(dian)(dian)統(tong)計鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)企(qi)業共(gong)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)粗鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)2166萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，平均(jun)日(ri)產(chan)(chan)216.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，日(ri)產(chan)(chan)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)1.6%；生(sheng)鐵(tie)(tie)1927萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，平均(jun)日(ri)產(chan)(chan)192.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，日(ri)產(chan)(chan)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)2.1%；鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)材2112萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，平均(jun)日(ri)產(chan)(chan)211.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，日(ri)產(chan)(chan)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.3%。2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)3月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)(xun)，重(zhong)點(dian)(dian)統(tong)計鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)企(qi)業鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)材庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)量(liang)1691萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)一旬(xun)(xun)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)66萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.1%；比(bi)(bi)(bi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)454萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)36.7%；比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)(yue)同(tong)(tong)旬(xun)(xun)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)39萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)2.4%；比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)旬(xun)(xun)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)262萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，下(xia)(xia)降13.4%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)前年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)旬(xun)(xun)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)205萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，下(xia)(xia)降10.8%。3月(yue)(yue)中(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)(xun)，21個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)城(cheng)市5大品種(zhong)鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)材社會庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)1085萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)37萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，下(xia)(xia)降3.3%，庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)由升轉降；比(bi)(bi)(bi)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)初增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)426萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，上(shang)(shang)升64.6%；比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)319萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，下(xia)(xia)降22.7%。從(cong)Mysteel公布的(de)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度螺(luo)紋(wen)鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)數據發現(xian)，本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)螺(luo)紋(wen)鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)總庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)為(wei)837.00萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)為(wei)853.78萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)去(qu)(qu)(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)16.78萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)去(qu)(qu)(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)6.12萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。近年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期表(biao)(biao)現(xian)為(wei)：2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)去(qu)(qu)(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)34.83萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)去(qu)(qu)(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)22.41萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)去(qu)(qu)(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)7.38萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。此外(wai)，本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)表(biao)(biao)需(xu)242.99萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)233.22萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，近年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期水(shui)平為(wei)：2024年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)246.44萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)322.43萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，2022年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)307.39萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)(yue)14日(ri)247家鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)廠高爐開工(gong)率(lv)80.58%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)1.07個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)4.43個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)；高爐煉(lian)鐵(tie)(tie)產(chan)(chan)能利(li)用率(lv)86.57%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)0.03個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)3.99個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)；鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)廠盈利(li)率(lv)53.25%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)持平，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)32.04個(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)；日(ri)均(jun)鐵(tie)(tie)水(shui)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)230.59萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)0.08萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)9.77萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。截至3月(yue)(yue)20日(ri)當周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)，螺(luo)紋(wen)鋼(gang)(gang)(gang)(gang)表(biao)(biao)需(xu)連(lian)(lian)續(xu)第(di)五(wu)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)，廠庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)連(lian)(lian)續(xu)第(di)四周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)，社庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)連(lian)(lian)續(xu)第(di)二(er)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)，產(chan)(chan)量(liang)由增(zeng)(zeng)轉減(jian)(jian)(jian)。螺(luo)紋(wen)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)226.21萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)0.89萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，降幅(fu)0.39%；螺(luo)紋(wen)廠庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)219.04萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)6.74萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，降幅(fu)2.99%；螺(luo)紋(wen)社庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)617.96萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)10.04萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，降幅(fu)1.60%；螺(luo)紋(wen)表(biao)(biao)需(xu)242.99萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較上(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)9.77萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，增(zeng)(zeng)幅(fu)4.19%。

鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦石(shi)：3月(yue)22日(ri)：全國(guo)(guo)主港(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦石(shi)成交140.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)漲88.24%；遠期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)現(xian)貨成交132萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。2025年(nian)(nian)03月(yue)17日(ri)-03月(yue)23日(ri)中國(guo)(guo)47港(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦石(shi)到(dao)港(gang)(gang)(gang)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)2639.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減少355.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；中國(guo)(guo)45港(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦石(shi)到(dao)港(gang)(gang)(gang)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)2510.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減少365.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；北方六港(gang)(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦石(shi)到(dao)港(gang)(gang)(gang)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)1240.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減少190.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。2025年(nian)(nian)03月(yue)17日(ri)-03月(yue)23日(ri)澳(ao)洲(zhou)巴(ba)西(xi)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦發運總(zong)量(liang)(liang)2515.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)161.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。澳(ao)洲(zhou)發運量(liang)(liang)1878.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)5.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，其中澳(ao)洲(zhou)發往(wang)中國(guo)(guo)的量(liang)(liang)1492.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減少45.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。巴(ba)西(xi)發運量(liang)(liang)636.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)156.0萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。 本(ben)(ben)(ben)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)全球鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦石(shi)發運總(zong)量(liang)(liang)3084.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)221.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)21日(ri)訊(xun)，Mysteel統(tong)計(ji)全國(guo)(guo)45個(ge)(ge)港(gang)(gang)(gang)口(kou)(kou)(kou)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦庫(ku)存總(zong)量(liang)(liang)14462.49萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)41.64萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；日(ri)均疏港(gang)(gang)(gang)量(liang)(liang)302.61萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，降(jiang)5.97萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；在港(gang)(gang)(gang)船舶數量(liang)(liang)95條，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)6條。47個(ge)(ge)港(gang)(gang)(gang)口(kou)(kou)(kou)進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)礦庫(ku)存總(zong)量(liang)(liang)14914.49萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)18.64萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；日(ri)均疏港(gang)(gang)(gang)量(liang)(liang)315.11萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，降(jiang)6.47萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)21日(ri)訊(xun)，Mysteel調研247家鋼(gang)廠高爐(lu)(lu)開工率(lv)81.96%，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)1.38個(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)5.06個(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)；高爐(lu)(lu)煉鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)產(chan)能(neng)利用率(lv)88.7%，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)2.13個(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)5.91個(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)；鋼(gang)廠盈利率(lv)53.25%，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周持平(ping)(ping)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)30.31個(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)；日(ri)均鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)水產(chan)量(liang)(liang)236.26萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)周增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)5.67萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)14.87萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan).全國(guo)(guo)44家樣(yang)(yang)本(ben)(ben)(ben)生(sheng)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)企(qi)業高爐(lu)(lu)產(chan)能(neng)利用率(lv)為61.27%，周環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)0.48%，月(yue)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升6.52%。廠內(nei)生(sheng)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)庫(ku)存72.47萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，周環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)6.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，月(yue)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)9.26萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)20日(ri)Mysteel統(tong)計(ji)新口(kou)(kou)(kou)徑(jing)114家鋼(gang)廠進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)燒(shao)結(jie)粉(fen)總(zong)庫(ku)存2866.33萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)減68.16萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)燒(shao)結(jie)粉(fen)總(zong)日(ri)耗(hao)116.42萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)5.26萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。庫(ku)存消費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)24.62，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)減1.78。原(yuan)口(kou)(kou)(kou)徑(jing)64家鋼(gang)廠進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)燒(shao)結(jie)粉(fen)總(zong)庫(ku)存1297.38萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)35.23萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)燒(shao)結(jie)粉(fen)總(zong)日(ri)耗(hao)57.17萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)2.21萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。燒(shao)結(jie)礦中平(ping)(ping)均使(shi)用進(jin)(jin)(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)礦配比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)86.9%，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)減0.08個(ge)(ge)百(bai)(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)。鋼(gang)廠不含稅(shui)平(ping)(ping)均鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)水成本(ben)(ben)(ben)2425元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)減21元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。此外(wai)，新口(kou)(kou)(kou)徑(jing)114家鋼(gang)廠剔(ti)除長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)停產(chan)樣(yang)(yang)本(ben)(ben)(ben)后(hou)不含稅(shui)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)(tie)水成本(ben)(ben)(ben)2424元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)減20元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。

雙焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)：焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企(qi)利(li)(li)潤多處盈(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)虧平(ping)(ping)衡線附(fu)近，開(kai)工(gong)較為(wei)穩定，隨著(zhu)下游鋼(gang)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)陸(lu)續復(fu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)，以及中間(jian)投機貿易商拿(na)貨(huo)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)多，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企(qi)出(chu)貨(huo)情(qing)況(kuang)較好，廠(chang)(chang)(chang)內(nei)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)持續下降(jiang)，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)供需(xu)結(jie)構(gou)向好運(yun)行，現山西地區主(zhu)流準(zhun)一級干熄焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)報1385-1470元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。需(xu)求方(fang)面，鋼(gang)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)復(fu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)不(bu)斷推進，鐵水(shui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)回升明顯，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)剛需(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強，部分低(di)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)鋼(gang)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)對焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)采購(gou)(gou)積極性提升。港(gang)(gang)(gang)口(kou)(kou)方(fang)面，兩(liang)港(gang)(gang)(gang)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)有增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)，貿易商集港(gang)(gang)(gang)情(qing)況(kuang)有所好轉(zhuan)，但實(shi)際成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)少(shao)，現港(gang)(gang)(gang)口(kou)(kou)準(zhun)一級冶(ye)金(jin)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)主(zhu)流現匯(hui)出(chu)庫價(jia)1380-1430元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)全國(guo)(guo)30家(jia)(jia)獨立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)化(hua)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)(li)情(qing)況(kuang)，全國(guo)(guo)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)(li)-27元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；山西準(zhun)一級焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)(li)0元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，山東準(zhun)一級焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)(li)20元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，內(nei)蒙(meng)二(er)級焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)(li)-91元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，河(he)北準(zhun)一級焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)(li)32元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。蒙(meng)古國(guo)(guo)進口(kou)(kou)煉(lian)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)市場(chang)受制(zhi)于高庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)弱需(xu)求的(de)核心矛盾(dun)，，ER公司(si)蒙(meng)3精(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)連續60場(chang)流拍(pai)后首(shou)次(ci)底價(jia)800元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)成(cheng)(cheng)交(jiao)。現甘其毛都(dou)口(kou)(kou)岸(an)：蒙(meng)5#原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)880，蒙(meng)5#精(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)1050，蒙(meng)4#原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)870，蒙(meng)3#精(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)1010，1/3焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)720；河(he)北唐山：蒙(meng)5#精(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)1270；策(ce)克(ke)(ke)口(kou)(kou)岸(an)：馬克(ke)(ke)A590，馬克(ke)(ke)西620，歐斯克(ke)(ke)A490，歐斯克(ke)(ke)B690，南(nan)戈壁A750，南(nan)戈壁B460，泰拉(la)原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)1000，巴(ba)音低(di)硫肥精(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)830，巴(ba)音低(di)硫氣(qi)肥精(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)800；滿都(dou)拉(la)口(kou)(kou)岸(an)：主(zhu)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)精(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)840，氣(qi)原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)570。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)Mysteel統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)獨立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企(qi)全樣本(ben)(ben)(ben)：產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用率(lv)(lv)為(wei)70.03%減(jian)(jian)0.85%；焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)日(ri)(ri)(ri)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)62.46減(jian)(jian)0.77，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)147.26減(jian)(jian)6.86，煉(lian)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)總庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)780.51減(jian)(jian)7.62，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)可(ke)用天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)9.4天(tian)(tian)(tian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.03天(tian)(tian)(tian)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)Mysteel統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)全國(guo)(guo)230家(jia)(jia)獨立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企(qi)樣本(ben)(ben)(ben)：產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用率(lv)(lv)為(wei)69.31%減(jian)(jian)1.07%；焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)日(ri)(ri)(ri)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)49.53減(jian)(jian)0.76，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)80.56減(jian)(jian)6.76，煉(lian)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)總庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)659.92減(jian)(jian)5.8，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)可(ke)用天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)10.0天(tian)(tian)(tian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.07天(tian)(tian)(tian)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)Mysteel統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)獨立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企(qi)全樣本(ben)(ben)(ben)：產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用率(lv)(lv)為(wei)70.03%減(jian)(jian)0.85%；焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)日(ri)(ri)(ri)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)62.46減(jian)(jian)0.77，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)147.26減(jian)(jian)6.86，煉(lian)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)總庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)780.51減(jian)(jian)7.62，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)可(ke)用天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)9.4天(tian)(tian)(tian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.03天(tian)(tian)(tian)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)Mysteel統(tong)(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)全國(guo)(guo)230家(jia)(jia)獨立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企(qi)樣本(ben)(ben)(ben)：產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用率(lv)(lv)為(wei)69.31%減(jian)(jian)1.07%；焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)日(ri)(ri)(ri)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)49.53減(jian)(jian)0.76，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)80.56減(jian)(jian)6.76，煉(lian)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)總庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)659.92減(jian)(jian)5.8，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)可(ke)用天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)10.0天(tian)(tian)(tian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)0.07天(tian)(tian)(tian)。終端消耗量(liang)(liang)未有提升，鋼(gang)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)面臨出(chu)貨(huo)不(bu)暢的(de)情(qing)況(kuang)，因此選擇主(zhu)動增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)的(de)鋼(gang)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)不(bu)多，對焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)采購(gou)(gou)保持謹慎。獨立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企(qi)在低(di)利(li)(li)潤壓(ya)制(zhi)下，產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用率(lv)(lv)續降(jiang)至(zhi)70%，日(ri)(ri)(ri)均(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)創10個月低(di)位，焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)環降(jiang)4.45%至(zhi)147.26萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，而鋼(gang)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)日(ri)(ri)(ri)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加，庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)小幅下降(jiang)0.75萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)至(zhi)678.41萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。然而港(gang)(gang)(gang)口(kou)(kou)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)環增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)6.17%至(zhi)254.48萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，因此，綜合庫存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)至(zhi)1080.15萬噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，達近3年(nian)最高，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅擴大(da)至(zhi)13.45%。

銅(tong)(tong)：3月24日(ri)(ri)(ri)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)市(shi)場電(dian)解(jie)(jie)銅(tong)(tong)現貨庫(ku)(ku)33.65萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)17日(ri)(ri)(ri)降(jiang)1.03萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)降(jiang)0.69萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；上海庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)23.06萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)17日(ri)(ri)(ri)增0.03萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)降(jiang)0.32萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；廣(guang)東庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)4.15萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)17日(ri)(ri)(ri)降(jiang)0.73萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)降(jiang)0.13萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)江蘇庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)5.76萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)17日(ri)(ri)(ri)降(jiang)0.25萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)降(jiang)0.21萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)電(dian)解(jie)(jie)銅(tong)(tong)社(she)會(hui)庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)延續去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)趨(qu)勢，其中各市(shi)場均(jun)表現不同(tong)程度降(jiang)幅；具體來看，由于市(shi)場部(bu)分倉庫(ku)(ku)不論國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產以及(ji)進口(kou)(kou)銅(tong)(tong)貨源(yuan)到(dao)(dao)貨依(yi)舊相對有限，然高(gao)銅(tong)(tong)價背(bei)景下(xia)，下(xia)游采購(gou)需求同(tong)樣(yang)不多，因此庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)維(wei)持(chi)下(xia)降(jiang)。截至(zhi)(zhi)3月20日(ri)(ri)(ri)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)銅(tong)(tong)社(she)會(hui)庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)34.64萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，連續3周(zhou)去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)，較(jiao)(jiao)年內(nei)高(gao)點(dian)下(xia)降(jiang)3.06萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)(jiao)去(qu)年同(tong)期低(di)4.86萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。上期所(suo)倉單降(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)15.85萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，LME庫(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)降(jiang)至(zhi)(zhi)22.46萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，注銷倉單增加(jia)(jia)10萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，顯示提(ti)貨需求旺盛。剛果（金）局勢動蕩、印(yin)尼Freeport銅(tong)(tong)精(jing)礦出口(kou)(kou)禁令解(jie)(jie)除后(hou)的運輸(shu)不確定性(xing)，加(jia)(jia)劇了礦端供應(ying)風險。加(jia)(jia)工(gong)費（TC）創新低(di)，進口(kou)(kou)銅(tong)(tong)精(jing)礦指數(shu)跌至(zhi)(zhi)-22.88美元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，冶(ye)煉廠(chang)持(chi)續虧損（單噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)虧損約2083元(yuan)），部(bu)分企業(ye)計劃檢修(xiu)或減產。印(yin)尼銅(tong)(tong)精(jing)礦出口(kou)(kou)雖部(bu)分緩解(jie)(jie)緊(jin)張，但實際到(dao)(dao)港仍(reng)需時間(jian)。美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)擬(ni)加(jia)(jia)征銅(tong)(tong)進口(kou)(kou)關稅(shui)（或達25%），刺激COMEX銅(tong)(tong)溢價超1000美元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，全球銅(tong)(tong)資源(yuan)向美國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)集中，加(jia)(jia)劇其他地區供應(ying)緊(jin)張。

鋁：截(jie)至3月(yue)20日，國(guo)內(nei)電(dian)解鋁運行產能(neng)約4384萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)小幅上(shang)升(sheng)。電(dian)解鋁完全(quan)成(cheng)本降至17061元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)（周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-274元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)），鋁廠利(li)潤修復至3719元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，2月(yue)份(fen)國(guo)內(nei)電(dian)解鋁產量同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長3.8%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下滑0.3%。鋁下游加(jia)工企業開工率回升(sheng)至62.8%（周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+1.2%），鋁型材(cai)開工率提升(sheng)至60%（光伏型材(cai)滿產），但建(jian)筑型材(cai)仍疲軟(ruan)。電(dian)網(wang)投資、光伏及新能(neng)源汽(qi)車需求強勁，而(er)傳統地產和出口訂單（同比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-30%）拖累整體消(xiao)費。鋁錠社會庫存降至83.4萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)（周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-2.8萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)），鋁棒庫存降至28.8萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)（周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-1萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)）。國(guo)內(nei)電(dian)解鋁運行產能(neng)4403.4萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)（周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)持平），氧(yang)化鋁供需平衡系數2.11，供應過剩(sheng)格局延續。北方氧(yang)化鋁現貨跌(die)至3100-3200元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)（周(zhou)環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-110元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)），倉單交割貨源流入(ru)市場加(jia)劇拋壓。

鎳(nie)(nie)：目前Ni:1.3%Mc40%鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)市場價(jia)(jia)(CIF)25美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；Ni:1.6%Mc35%鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)基準(zhun)價(jia)(jia)(HPM)27.47美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，市場價(jia)(jia)(CIF)47.47美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；Ni:1.8%Mc35%鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)基準(zhun)價(jia)(jia)(HPM)34.53美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，市場價(jia)(jia)(CIF)54.53美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。本周(zhou)中(zhong)國14港港口鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)庫(ku)存(cun)減(jian)少(shao)37.30萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)至735.2萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，降幅4.83%。以(yi)鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)產地分，菲(fei)律(lv)賓鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)735.2萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，其他國家0萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；以(yi)鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)品位(wei)分，低鎳(nie)(nie)高鐵礦(kuang)(kuang)376.09萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，中(zhong)高品位(wei)鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)359.11萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。印(yin)尼(ni)內貿(mao)火法礦(kuang)(kuang)3月(yue)(yue)主流升水為(wei)19~20美(mei)(mei)金/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)(yue)印(yin)尼(ni)蘇(su)拉維(wei)西主礦(kuang)(kuang)區雨季(ji)將(jiang)陸續(xu)結束，印(yin)尼(ni)鎳(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)供應(ying)呈增加預期(qi)，但下(xia)游冶煉企業(ye)剛需(xu)采(cai)購需(xu)求仍(reng)存(cun)，且3月(yue)(yue)時逢齋月(yue)(yue)，開齋節前后供應(ying)或(huo)受到一(yi)定(ding)影響，疊加對于政策不確定(ding)性(xing)的考(kao)慮(lv)，火法礦(kuang)(kuang)延續(xu)漲價(jia)(jia)趨(qu)勢，但漲幅相(xiang)較(jiao)2月(yue)(yue)有(you)(you)一(yi)定(ding)收窄(zhai)。濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)法礦(kuang)(kuang)方(fang)面，礦(kuang)(kuang)山在配(pei)額有(you)(you)限情況下(xia)，傾向于優(you)先出售利潤較(jiao)好的火法礦(kuang)(kuang)，主動(dong)降低濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)法礦(kuang)(kuang)出售量。

豆粕

3月(yue)25日，生意社豆(dou)粕基準(zhun)價為(wei)3208.00元/噸(dun)，與本月(yue)初(3722.00元/噸(dun))相比，下降了-13.81%。

3月25日，生意社(she)大豆(dou)基準價為4128.00元(yuan)/噸(dun)，與本月初(4180.00元(yuan)/噸(dun))相比，下降(jiang)了-1.24%。

海(hai)關總(zong)(zong)署數據顯示：2024年(nian)1-13月，中國(guo)進口(kou)大豆數量(liang)10503.2萬噸，創歷史新(xin)高，同比(bi)2023年(nian)增(zeng)長6.51%，進口(kou)大豆總(zong)(zong)金額527億美(mei)元，同比(bi)下降10.98%（國(guo)際大豆價(jia)格走低）。2025年(nian)1-3月，中國(guo)進口(kou)大豆數1360.6萬噸，較2024年(nian)同期增(zeng)長4.4%。

進(jin)口大豆到(dao)國內港(gang)口C&F報價(jia)。

單位：美元/噸

國(guo)(guo)家糧(liang)油信息(xi)中心消(xiao)息(xi)：監測顯(xian)示，截(jie)至 3 月 14 日當周，國(guo)(guo)內主(zhu)要油廠(chang)大豆(dou)壓榨(zha)量(liang) 163 萬(wan)噸(dun)，周環比上(shang)升 11萬(wan)噸(dun)，月環比下降(jiang) 31 萬(wan)噸(dun)，同(tong)比下降(jiang) 1 萬(wan)噸(dun)，較過去三年均值上(shang)升 1 萬(wan)噸(dun)。本(ben)周部分油廠(chang)大豆(dou)庫存(cun)趨緊、開機率(lv)可能維(wei)持低位，預計大豆(dou)壓榨(zha)量(liang)約(yue) 140 萬(wan)噸(dun)。

美國農業部3月供需報告：美國大(da)豆

3月(yue)美國2024/2025年度大豆種植面積(ji)預(yu)期(qi)8710萬英(ying)畝，1月(yue)預(yu)期(qi)為8710萬英(ying)畝，環(huan)比持平；

3月美國2024/2025年(nian)度(du)大豆收獲(huo)面積預期(qi)8610萬(wan)英畝(mu)，1月預期(qi)為8610萬(wan)英畝(mu)，環比持平；

3月(yue)美(mei)國2024/2025年度大豆單產預期(qi)50.7蒲(pu)式耳/英畝，1月(yue)預期(qi)為50.7蒲(pu)式耳/英畝，環比(bi)持平；

3月(yue)美國2024/2025年度(du)大豆產量預期(qi)43.66億蒲式耳(er)，1月(yue)預期(qi)為(wei)43.66億蒲式耳(er)，環比持(chi)平(ping)；

3月(yue)美國2024/2025年度大豆總供應量預期(qi)47.29億蒲式(shi)耳，1月(yue)預期(qi)為47.29億蒲式(shi)耳，環比(bi)持平；

3月(yue)美國(guo)2024/2025年(nian)度大豆壓榨量預期(qi)24.1億蒲(pu)(pu)式(shi)耳，1月(yue)預期(qi)為24.1億蒲(pu)(pu)式(shi)耳，環比持平；

3月(yue)(yue)美(mei)國2024/2025年度大豆出(chu)口量預期18.25億(yi)(yi)蒲式(shi)耳(er)，1月(yue)(yue)預期為(wei)18.25億(yi)(yi)蒲式(shi)耳(er)，環比(bi)持(chi)平；

3月美國2024/2025年度大豆總消(xiao)耗(hao)量預(yu)(yu)期43.49億(yi)蒲式耳(er)，1月預(yu)(yu)期為(wei)43.49億(yi)蒲式耳(er)，環比持平；

3月美國2024/2025年度大豆期(qi)末庫存預期(qi)3.8億蒲式耳，1月預期(qi)為3.8億蒲式耳，環比持平(ping)。

美大豆周度(du)出口報告：截至(zhi)2025年3月13日當(dang)周，美國(guo)2024/25年度(du)大豆凈(jing)銷售量(liang)為352,600噸，較上周減少53%，較四周均(jun)值減少29%。

據美國農(nong)業部（USDA）公布的出(chu)口檢(jian)驗(yan)報(bao)告，截至3月13日當周，美國大豆出(chu)口檢(jian)驗(yan)量為64.67萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，上周修正后為85.36萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)。2024/25年度（始(shi)于9月1日）美國大豆出(chu)口檢(jian)驗(yan)累計(ji)總量為3909.82萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，上年同期3578.22萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)，同比增(zeng)加9.27%。

巴(ba)西谷(gu)物出口商協(xie)會（ANEC）表(biao)示,2025年3月(yue)份(fen)巴(ba)西玉米出口量估計為413,401噸，略微高于一周前預(yu)估的412,700噸。3月(yue)份(fen)的出口量仍低于2月(yue)份(fen)的129萬噸，但是顯著高于去年3月(yue)份(fen)的140,561噸。

玉米

3月25日(ri)，生(sheng)意社玉米基準(zhun)價為2210.00元(yuan)/噸，與本月初(2127.14元(yuan)/噸)相(xiang)比，上漲了3.90%。

據中國海關數據顯(xian)示(shi)：2025年(nian)1-2月玉米進(jin)口量僅18萬噸，較去年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期的620萬噸驟降97.1%（2024年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期約620萬噸）。2024年(nian)我國玉米進(jin)口總量為1364萬噸，同(tong)(tong)比大幅(fu)下降49.7%。

據Mysteel農產品調研顯示(shi)，截至2025年3月14日，北(bei)方四(si)港(gang)玉(yu)米庫存共計507.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，周環比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)1.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；當周北(bei)方四(si)港(gang)下海量共計62.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，周環比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)4.10萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。廣東(dong)港(gang)內(nei)貿玉(yu)米庫存共計189萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)2.70萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；外貿庫存11.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)3.30萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；進口(kou)(kou)高(gao)粱39.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周減少11.00萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；進口(kou)(kou)大麥(mai)65.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)0.50萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。 

美國農業部3月供需報(bao)告：美國玉米

3月美國(guo)2024/2025年(nian)度玉米種植面積預(yu)期(qi)9060萬(wan)英(ying)畝(mu)，1月預(yu)期(qi)為9060萬(wan)英(ying)畝(mu)，環(huan)比持平；

3月美(mei)國(guo)2024/2025年度玉米收(shou)獲面積(ji)預期8290萬(wan)英(ying)畝，1月預期為8290萬(wan)英(ying)畝，環比持平；

3月美國2024/2025年(nian)度玉(yu)米單產預期179.3蒲式(shi)耳/英畝，1月預期為179.3蒲式(shi)耳/英畝，環比持平；

3月(yue)美國2024/2025年度(du)玉米產量預(yu)期148.67億(yi)蒲(pu)式耳(er)，1月(yue)預(yu)期為148.67億(yi)蒲(pu)式耳(er)，環(huan)比持平(ping)；

3月(yue)美國(guo)2024/2025年度玉米(mi)總供應量(liang)預期(qi)166.55億(yi)蒲式耳(er)，1月(yue)預期(qi)為(wei)166.55億(yi)蒲式耳(er)，環比持平(ping)；

3月美(mei)國2024/2025年(nian)度玉米總消(xiao)耗量預期(qi)151.15億(yi)蒲式耳，1月預期(qi)為151.15億(yi)蒲式耳，環比持平；

3月美國2024/2025年度玉米期(qi)末庫存預期(qi)15.4億(yi)蒲(pu)式耳，1月預期(qi)為15.4億(yi)蒲(pu)式耳，環比持平(ping)。

據美(mei)國農業部（USDA）公布(bu)的(de)出口銷售報告(gao)，截至2025年3月13日(ri)當周，美(mei)國2024/25年度玉米凈銷售量為1,496,700噸，較(jiao)上周增加55%，較(jiao)四(si)周均值增加45%。

據(ju)美(mei)(mei)國(guo)農業(ye)部（USDA）公布的(de)出(chu)口檢驗報告(gao)，截至3月13日當周，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)玉(yu)米(mi)出(chu)口檢驗量(liang)為165.86萬噸(dun)，上周修正后為184.42萬噸(dun)，2024/25年(nian)度美(mei)(mei)國(guo)玉(yu)米(mi)出(chu)口檢驗累計總量(liang)為3076.14萬噸(dun)，上一(yi)年(nian)度同期2319.04萬噸(dun)。

巴(ba)西(xi)谷物出(chu)口(kou)商協會（ANEC）表示,2025年3月份(fen)(fen)巴(ba)西(xi)玉(yu)米出(chu)口(kou)量估計為413,401噸(dun)，略微高(gao)(gao)于(yu)一周(zhou)前預(yu)估的(de)412,700噸(dun)。3月份(fen)(fen)的(de)出(chu)口(kou)量仍低于(yu)2月份(fen)(fen)的(de)129萬噸(dun)，但是顯著高(gao)(gao)于(yu)去(qu)年3月份(fen)(fen)的(de)140,561噸(dun)。

原油(you)

3月(yue)(yue)(yue)25日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)宣布將(jiang)會對(dui)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)南美(mei)(mei)某國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)石(shi)(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)(you)的國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)加(jia)征25%關稅(shui)；有報道稱OPEC+可能(neng)按照既定(ding)計(ji)劃，在5月(yue)(yue)(yue)連(lian)續(xu)第(di)二(er)個月(yue)(yue)(yue)提高(gao)石(shi)(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)(you)產量(liang)(liang)；3月(yue)(yue)(yue)23日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)數據顯(xian)示，當(dang)(dang)前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)伊(yi)拉克(ke)石(shi)(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)(you)出口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)達(da)到約(yue)335萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，在兩次減產后，伊(yi)拉克(ke)石(shi)(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)(you)產量(liang)(liang)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)400萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)；3月(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)白宮(gong)新聞發(fa)言人表(biao)示，特(te)(te)朗(lang)普希望油(you)(you)(you)價繼續(xu)下(xia)跌(die)。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)15日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)訊，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)總統(tong)特(te)(te)朗(lang)普將(jiang)于下(xia)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)在白宮(gong)會見石(shi)(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)(you)行(xing)(xing)業高(gao)管制定(ding)促進(jin)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)內能(neng)源生產的計(ji)劃；此前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)際能(neng)源署（IEA）將(jiang)其(qi)2025年的石(shi)(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)(you)需求增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)預測下(xia)調了7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，至(zhi)100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)左(zuo)右，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)主要受亞洲，特(te)(te)別(bie)是中國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)石(shi)(shi)(shi)化行(xing)(xing)業的推動。截至(zhi)2025年3月(yue)(yue)(yue)24日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)，山東(dong)獨(du)立(li)煉廠原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)到港量(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)316.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)下(xia)跌(die)12.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，跌(die)幅為(wei)(wei)3.69%。相比(bi)(bi)之下(xia)，去年同期，山東(dong)獨(du)立(li)煉廠原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)到港量(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)133.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，環比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)20萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅為(wei)(wei)17.56%，當(dang)(dang)期到港原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)以(yi)中質(zhi)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)為(wei)(wei)主，其(qi)中俄羅(luo)斯(si)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)到港37.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)，但稀釋瀝(li)青到港量(liang)(liang)繼續(xu)維持零到港狀態。美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)至(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)EIA戰略(lve)石(shi)(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)(you)儲(chu)備庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)27.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)至(zhi)3.959億桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅0.07%為(wei)(wei)2022年11月(yue)(yue)(yue)4日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)以(yi)來最(zui)高(gao)，原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)出口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)2024年12月(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)以(yi)來最(zui)高(gao)，除(chu)卻戰略(lve)儲(chu)備的商業原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)(liang)為(wei)(wei)2023年3月(yue)(yue)(yue)24日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)以(yi)來最(zui)低，除(chu)卻戰略(lve)儲(chu)備的商業原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)為(wei)(wei)2024年7月(yue)(yue)(yue)12日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)以(yi)來最(zui)高(gao)。消息(xi)面上(shang)，由于需求開(kai)始季(ji)節性(xing)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，歐佩克(ke)+決(jue)定(ding)從(cong)4月(yue)(yue)(yue)份開(kai)始部分增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產；同時，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)加(jia)拿大、墨(mo)西哥和(he)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)征收(shou)關稅(shui)以(yi)及(ji)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)報復性(xing)關稅(shui)，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)暫停對(dui)烏克(ke)蘭(lan)提供軍事援(yuan)助。美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)至(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)21日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)石(shi)(shi)(shi)油(you)(you)(you)鉆(zhan)(zhan)井總數486口(kou)(kou)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值487口(kou)(kou)；當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)天然氣(qi)鉆(zhan)(zhan)井總數102口(kou)(kou)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值100口(kou)(kou)，當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)459.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，預期-107.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值459.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)；當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API投產原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)量(liang)(liang)-13.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值0.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)；當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API成品油(you)(you)(you)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)-30.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值-16.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)；當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)進(jin)口(kou)(kou) -25.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值7.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)；當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API取暖油(you)(you)(you)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun) -38.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值44.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)；當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API精(jing)煉油(you)(you)(you)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun) -134.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，預期-175.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值-214.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)；當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API汽油(you)(you)(you)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun) -327.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，預期-199.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值-170.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)；當(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API庫(ku)(ku)(ku)欣原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)油(you)(you)(you)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun) -61萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)，前(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)值-114.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)。

PTA

現(xian)(xian)貨方(fang)面，3月(yue)25日，華東(dong)(dong)現(xian)(xian)貨PTA收漲至(zhi)4860元/噸(dun)。國(guo)內供需維持偏緊格(ge)(ge)局，華東(dong)(dong)PTA現(xian)(xian)貨商談(tan)價格(ge)(ge)在4800-4900。截至(zhi)3月(yue)7日，行業(ye)平(ping)均開工為73.6%，環(huan)比(bi)-4.6%；國(guo)內PTA周(zhou)(zhou)產(chan)量(liang)133.68萬噸(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)-2.43萬噸(dun)；下(xia)游(you)聚(ju)(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行業(ye)周(zhou)(zhou)度平(ping)均開工87.84%，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)+0.48%；PTA社會(hui)(hui)庫存(cun)量(liang)約在499.45萬噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)-8.16萬噸(dun)；本周(zhou)(zhou)期聚(ju)(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行業(ye)周(zhou)(zhou)產(chan)量(liang)：148.33萬噸(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)+1.22萬噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)漲0.83%。中國(guo)聚(ju)(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)行業(ye)周(zhou)(zhou)度平(ping)均產(chan)能利用率(lv)：87.84%，環(huan)比(bi)漲0.48%。截至(zhi)3月(yue)7日，據隆(long)眾資訊(xun)生產(chan)成本計算模型，PTA成本平(ping)均在4620.47元/噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)-144.46元/噸(dun)，現(xian)(xian)貨周(zhou)(zhou)均加工費323元/噸(dun)（+55）；截至(zhi)3月(yue)7日，PTA社會(hui)(hui)庫存(cun)542.3萬噸(dun)，環(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降5.8萬噸(dun)。聚(ju)(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)工廠原(yuan)料庫存(cun)9.90天，較(jiao)上月(yue)末(mo)-3.88%。終端(duan)新增訂單有(you)限(xian)，江浙織機(ji)開工緩步提(ti)升(sheng)，聚(ju)(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)產(chan)銷(xiao)整體平(ping)淡，長(chang)絲庫存(cun)繼(ji)續累積，聚(ju)(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)負(fu)荷(he)低于預(yu)期，下(xia)游(you)需求恢復偏慢。

純堿(jian)

3月(yue)24日，西(xi)南地區輕(qing)質(zhi)純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)價(jia)格在(zai)(zai)1400-1500元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，重質(zhi)純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)價(jia)格在(zai)(zai)1500-1600元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)；華中地區輕(qing)質(zhi)純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)價(jia)格在(zai)(zai)1300-1550元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，重質(zhi)純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)價(jia)格在(zai)(zai)1450-1600元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。鋼聯(lian)數據顯示，3月(yue)14日當(dang)周(zhou)純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)整體(ti)開工率(lv)為83.29%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)5.75個百(bai)(bai)分點，同比(bi)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)7.72個百(bai)(bai)分點；周(zhou)度產量為69.79萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)5%，同比(bi)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)6.59%。供給方面，據隆眾資訊，截至3月(yue)10日，純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)廠家周(zhou)度產量69.79萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)3.68萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。下(xia)游浮(fu)法玻(bo)璃開工率(lv)變動不大(da)。庫(ku)存(cun)來看，3月(yue)10日，國(guo)內(nei)純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)廠家總庫(ku)存(cun)173.88萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，較上(shang)周(zhou)四減(jian)少(shao)(shao)2.11萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)幅1.20%。輕(qing)質(zhi)純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)84萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)1.53萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，跌(die)幅1.79%。重質(zhi)純(chun)堿(jian)(jian)(jian)89.88萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)0.58萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)，下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)0.64%。

玻璃

據(ju)金十數(shu)據(ju)，截至(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)24日(ri)(ri)，華北(bei)地區(qu)受中(zhong)游(you)備貨需(xu)求帶動(dong)，廠(chang)家出貨情況較好，整體(ti)價(jia)(jia)格上(shang)(shang)調(diao)10元(yuan)/噸，沙河地區(qu)大小板價(jia)(jia)格漲幅較為明顯(xian)；華東市場需(xu)求表現(xian)不及預期(qi)，下(xia)游(you)采購仍以剛需(xu)為主(zhu)，區(qu)域內價(jia)(jia)格漲跌互(hu)現(xian)；其(qi)他地區(qu)出貨情況穩定(ding)，整體(ti)報(bao)價(jia)(jia)維持平穩。近期(qi)玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)企(qi)業商討(tao)4月(yue)(yue)(yue)新單(dan)報(bao)價(jia)(jia)，多數(shu)企(qi)業透露(lu)4月(yue)(yue)(yue)新單(dan)價(jia)(jia)格將有(you)所上(shang)(shang)調(diao)，其(qi)中(zhong)背面玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)價(jia)(jia)格有(you)望上(shang)(shang)調(diao)1.5元(yuan)/平方(fang)米，正(zheng)面玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)價(jia)(jia)格有(you)望上(shang)(shang)調(diao)0.5元(yuan)/平方(fang)米，上(shang)(shang)調(diao)主(zhu)要原(yuan)因為供應端仍有(you)緊缺態(tai)勢，玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)庫(ku)存水位下(xia)降提供支(zhi)撐。截至(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)21日(ri)(ri)，全國(guo)浮(fu)(fu)法玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)生(sheng)產線共(gong)(gong)計(ji)285條，在產223條，日(ri)(ri)熔量(liang)(liang)(liang)共(gong)(gong)計(ji)158155噸，后期(qi)玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)產線冷修計(ji)劃和復(fu)產點(dian)火計(ji)劃體(ti)量(liang)(liang)(liang)基本相當(dang)；海(hai)關數(shu)據(ju)顯(xian)示，2月(yue)(yue)(yue)我國(guo)光伏(fu)玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)出口量(liang)(liang)(liang)達(da)到28.21萬(wan)(wan)噸，環比1月(yue)(yue)(yue)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少28.04%，同比減(jian)(jian)(jian)少9.41%。2025年1-2月(yue)(yue)(yue)，光伏(fu)玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)總(zong)出口量(liang)(liang)(liang)達(da)到67.41萬(wan)(wan)噸，同比去(qu)年微減(jian)(jian)(jian)0.07%。供應方(fang)面，3月(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri)(ri)當(dang)周浮(fu)(fu)法玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)行業平均(jun)開工率減(jian)(jian)(jian)少0.24%至(zhi)75.85%，而平均(jun)產能利用率環增(zeng)(zeng)0.37%至(zhi)79.08%，3月(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri)(ri)全國(guo)浮(fu)(fu)法玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)日(ri)(ri)產量(liang)(liang)(liang)為15.85萬(wan)(wan)噸，比13日(ri)(ri)減(jian)(jian)(jian)少0.22%，但(dan)(dan)本周全國(guo)浮(fu)(fu)法玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)產量(liang)(liang)(liang)111萬(wan)(wan)噸，創兩個半月(yue)(yue)(yue)高位，環比增(zeng)(zeng)加0.48%，但(dan)(dan)同比下(xia)降了9.65%。截止到3月(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri)(ri)，全國(guo)浮(fu)(fu)法玻(bo)(bo)(bo)璃(li)(li)(li)(li)樣本企(qi)業總(zong)庫(ku)存環比減(jian)(jian)(jian)少1.13%至(zhi)6946萬(wan)(wan)重箱，同比增(zeng)(zeng)幅縮減(jian)(jian)(jian)至(zhi)9.19%。折庫(ku)存天數(shu)31.3天，較上(shang)(shang)期(qi)-0.7天。

苯乙烯

現貨方面，3月(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri)，生意社苯(ben)乙(yi)(yi)烯(xi)(xi)基準(zhun)價為(wei)8374.00元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。國內(nei)供(gong)應有縮量(liang)預期(qi)，供(gong)需維(wei)持偏緊格局(ju)。供(gong)應方面，從現有檢(jian)(jian)(jian)修(xiu)計劃看(kan)，供(gong)應依(yi)然充足。據(ju)隆(long)眾資訊(xun)截至(zhi)(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri)，中國苯(ben)乙(yi)(yi)烯(xi)(xi)工(gong)廠(chang)整體(ti)產(chan)量(liang)在(zai)34.32萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)期(qi)降0.37萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-1.07%；工(gong)廠(chang)產(chan)能利(li)用率(lv)74.92%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-0.82%。按計劃表，苯(ben)乙(yi)(yi)烯(xi)(xi)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)修(xiu)損失量(liang)將逐步增(zeng)長，并在(zai)4月(yue)(yue)(yue)達到(dao)峰值，若計劃內(nei)檢(jian)(jian)(jian)修(xiu)能如期(qi)兌(dui)現，苯(ben)乙(yi)(yi)烯(xi)(xi)開工(gong)率(lv)將于3月(yue)(yue)(yue)底開始不斷下(xia)滑；截至(zhi)(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri)，中國苯(ben)乙(yi)(yi)烯(xi)(xi)工(gong)廠(chang)樣(yang)本庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)量(liang)24.62萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)一(yi)周(zhou)期(qi)減(jian)少0.18萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)減(jian)少0.71%，樣(yang)本企業工(gong)廠(chang)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)小幅減(jian)少；截至(zhi)(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)16日(ri)，華東港(gang)口(kou)(kou)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)17.80萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)前一(yi)周(zhou)減(jian)少1.21萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)；華東港(gang)口(kou)(kou)貿易庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)14.89萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)前一(yi)周(zhou)減(jian)少0.97萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，港(gang)口(kou)(kou)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)逐步見頂回(hui)落；下(xia)游EPS產(chan)能利(li)用率(lv)56.34%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-6%；PS產(chan)能利(li)用率(lv)65.5%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)+2.6%；ABS產(chan)能利(li)用率(lv)73%，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-1.4%。截至(zhi)(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)(yue)10日(ri)，江蘇苯(ben)乙(yi)(yi)烯(xi)(xi)港(gang)口(kou)(kou)樣(yang)本庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)總量(liang)18.6萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)期(qi)減(jian)少0.81萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，幅度-4.17%。商品量(liang)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)在(zai)12.4萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)期(qi)減(jian)少0.56萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)，幅度-4.32%。

甲(jia)醇(chun)

3月(yue)25日(ri)(ri)，靖(jing)江(jiang)地區(qu)(qu)進口(kou)貨(huo)(huo)源報(bao)盤價(jia)格參考2700-2710元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)附近;河北甲(jia)醇市(shi)場主(zhu)流(liu)價(jia)格至2420-2430元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，成(cheng)交一般。現貨(huo)(huo)方(fang)面，3月(yue)20日(ri)(ri)，江(jiang)蘇太(tai)倉甲(jia)醇現貨(huo)(huo)成(cheng)交平均價(jia)2693元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)3月(yue)19日(ri)(ri)漲(zhang)38元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)14日(ri)(ri)至20日(ri)(ri)，國內甲(jia)醇產(chan)量1853635噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)減(jian)15490噸(dun)(dun)；裝(zhuang)置(zhi)產(chan)能利用率為85.27%，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)0.92%；下游需(xu)(xu)求端部(bu)分品種本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)產(chan)能利用率：烯烴(jing)89.31%，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)1.49%；甲(jia)醛48.69%，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)0.03%；醋酸87.83%，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)升(sheng)5.25%；MTBE61.72%，環比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)1.29%。截至2025年(nian)3月(yue)19日(ri)(ri)，中國甲(jia)醇港口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)總量在80.01萬噸(dun)(dun)，較(jiao)上一期數據減(jian)少(shao)11.1萬噸(dun)(dun)。其中，華東地區(qu)(qu)去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)，庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)減(jian)少(shao)8.7萬噸(dun)(dun)；華南地區(qu)(qu)去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)，庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)減(jian)少(shao)2.4萬噸(dun)(dun)。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)甲(jia)醇港口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)繼續(xu)如期大幅(fu)去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)，顯(xian)性外(wai)輪卸(xie)貨(huo)(huo)維持低位，江(jiang)蘇沿江(jiang)主(zhu)流(liu)區(qu)(qu)域在大型(xing)終端汽運提(ti)(ti)貨(huo)(huo)助(zhu)力下提(ti)(ti)貨(huo)(huo)量明顯(xian)增(zeng)加(jia)，南京(jing)地區(qu)(qu)大型(xing)終端則(ze)仍有(you)(you)較(jiao)多管輸(shu)原料來自于非顯(xian)性庫(ku)(ku)(ku)區(qu)(qu)；浙江(jiang)地區(qu)(qu)寧波碼頭卸(xie)貨(huo)(huo)速度仍較(jiao)一般，但剛需(xu)(xu)穩定消(xiao)耗(hao)下同步去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)。本(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)華南港口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)繼續(xu)去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)。廣東地區(qu)(qu)周(zhou)(zhou)內進口(kou)及內貿均有(you)(you)補充，主(zhu)流(liu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)區(qu)(qu)提(ti)(ti)貨(huo)(huo)在周(zhou)(zhou)邊市(shi)場需(xu)(xu)求提(ti)(ti)振(zhen)下有(you)(you)所(suo)增(zeng)加(jia)，使得庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)下降(jiang)。福(fu)建(jian)地區(qu)(qu)周(zhou)(zhou)內暫無船只(zhi)抵港，當地下游剛需(xu)(xu)消(xiao)耗(hao)，從而呈(cheng)現去(qu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)。

免責聲明：以上信(xin)息(xi)、意見(jian)不構成對具(ju)體證券期(qi)貨或金融(rong)工(gong)具(ju)在具(ju)體價位、具(ju)體時點、具(ju)體市場表現(xian)的(de)投(tou)資(zi)建(jian)議。以上信(xin)息(xi)、意見(jian)在任何時候均不構成對任何人的(de)具(ju)有(you)針對性的(de)、指導(dao)具(ju)體投(tou)資(zi)的(de)操作意見(jian)，投(tou)資(zi)者應當(dang)對以上信(xin)息(xi)和(he)意見(jian)進行評估，根據自(zi)身(shen)情況(kuang)自(zi)主做出投(tou)資(zi)決(jue)策并自(zi)行承(cheng)擔投(tou)資(zi)風險。