股指:
消(xiao)息(xi)(xi)面上(shang),3月(yue)18日,中(zhong)國(guo)證監(jian)會(hui)(hui)(hui)發(fa)布(bu)關(guan)于就《中(zhong)國(guo)證監(jian)會(hui)(hui)(hui)派出機(ji)構(gou)監(jian)管職責(ze)規定(修訂草案征求意見稿)》公開(kai)(kai)(kai)征求意見的(de)(de)通知。文件涉及多項內容,包括明確派出機(ji)構(gou)對(dui)公開(kai)(kai)(kai)發(fa)行(xing)股票并上(shang)市(shi)輔導(dao)工作的(de)(de)監(jian)管職能(neng)(neng),優(you)化私募基(ji)金(jin)風險處置(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi),授權派出機(ji)構(gou)依法推動(dong)相關(guan)主體適用(yong)(yong)先行(xing)賠付(fu)制(zhi)度等。3月(yue)19日消(xiao)息(xi)(xi),國(guo)家地(di)(di)方共(gong)建人(ren)(ren)形機(ji)器人(ren)(ren)創新(xin)中(zhong)心預(yu)告,即將(jiang)(jiang)發(fa)布(bu)里(li)程碑式的(de)(de)通用(yong)(yong)具(ju)身智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)平臺——“格物”,構(gou)建全球領(ling)先的(de)(de)機(ji)器人(ren)(ren)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)體訓(xun)練(lian)生態系統(tong),并舉辦“格物具(ju)身智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)仿真平臺發(fa)布(bu)會(hui)(hui)(hui)”。另(ling)外(wai),國(guo)家地(di)(di)方共(gong)建人(ren)(ren)形機(ji)器人(ren)(ren)創新(xin)中(zhong)心開(kai)(kai)(kai)放(fang)基(ji)金(jin)將(jiang)(jiang)發(fa)布(bu)。該基(ji)金(jin)將(jiang)(jiang)圍繞平臺技術、具(ju)身智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)、數(shu)據集、訓(xun)練(lian)場(chang)四(si)(si)大領(ling)域及細分(fen)主要研究方向設置(zhi)開(kai)(kai)(kai)放(fang)基(ji)金(jin)課(ke)題(ti),對(dui)課(ke)題(ti)基(ji)礎(chu)性(xing)、原創性(xing)、應(ying)用(yong)(yong)前(qian)景(jing)和潛在(zai)影響加以綜合評(ping)估,篩選部(bu)分(fen)優(you)秀可落地(di)(di)的(de)(de)項目(mu)(mu)資助(zhu)。海外(wai)方面,美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)于當地(di)(di)時(shi)間(jian)(jian)3月(yue)19日宣(xuan)布(bu)維(wei)(wei)持基(ji)準利率不變,仍(reng)(reng)維(wei)(wei)持在(zai)4.25%-4.5%區間(jian)(jian),這(zhe)是自1月(yue)底會(hui)(hui)(hui)議以來,美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)再次決(jue)定維(wei)(wei)持利率不變。美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)發(fa)布(bu)最新(xin)一期經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)前(qian)景(jing)預(yu)期,美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)決(jue)策者(zhe)上(shang)調了(le)今年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)通脹預(yu)期,預(yu)計到(dao)年(nian)(nian)底,他們(men)青睞的(de)(de)通脹指標(biao)將(jiang)(jiang)達到(dao)2.7%。美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)決(jue)策者(zhe)還將(jiang)(jiang)今年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)長預(yu)期從2.1%下(xia)調至1.7%,并小(xiao)幅上(shang)調失業率預(yu)測。美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)決(jue)策者(zhe)的(de)(de)預(yu)測顯示,在(zai)19位(wei)(wei)決(jue)策者(zhe)中(zhong),四(si)(si)位(wei)(wei)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)2025年(nian)(nian)不降(jiang)息(xi)(xi),四(si)(si)位(wei)(wei)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)降(jiang)息(xi)(xi)一次,九位(wei)(wei)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)降(jiang)息(xi)(xi)兩次,兩位(wei)(wei)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)降(jiang)息(xi)(xi)三次。與此同時(shi),美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)放(fang)緩了(le)縮減資產負債(zhai)表(量化緊縮,QT)的(de)(de)步伐。美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)主席鮑威爾在(zai)隨后的(de)(de)新(xin)聞發(fa)布(bu)會(hui)(hui)(hui)上(shang)表示,美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)依然強勁,通脹率在(zai)過去兩年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)顯著(zhu)下(xia)降(jiang),但仍(reng)(reng)高于美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)2%的(de)(de)長期目(mu)(mu)標(biao)。他強調,美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)的(de)(de)政策路徑仍(reng)(reng)然取(qu)決(jue)于數(shu)據,如果勞動(dong)力市(shi)場(chang)意外(wai)疲軟(ruan)或通脹下(xia)降(jiang)速度快(kuai)于預(yu)期,美(mei)(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)(lian)儲(chu)將(jiang)(jiang)相應(ying)調整政策。
國(guo)債(zhai):
公(gong)開(kai)市(shi)場方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian),人(ren)民(min)銀(yin)行3月(yue)(yue)17日(ri)公(gong)告稱,為保(bao)持銀(yin)行體系流動性充裕,以固定利(li)(li)率(lv)、數量招標方(fang)式開(kai)展了4810億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)7天(tian)期逆(ni)回購(gou)(gou)操作,中標利(li)(li)率(lv)為1.5%。今(jin)日(ri)公(gong)開(kai)市(shi)場有(you)965億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)逆(ni)回購(gou)(gou)以及3870億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)MLF到期,凈回籠25億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。資(zi)金面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian),上(shang)海銀(yin)行間(jian)同(tong)業(ye)拆放(fang)利(li)(li)率(lv)(Shibor)漲跌互(hu)現,隔夜shibor報(bao)(bao)(bao)1.8050%,下行0.60個基(ji)點(dian);7天(tian)shibor報(bao)(bao)(bao)1.8190%,上(shang)行7.70個基(ji)點(dian)。銀(yin)行間(jian)回購(gou)(gou)定盤利(li)(li)率(lv)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)(mian),FR001報(bao)(bao)(bao)1.90%;FR007報(bao)(bao)(bao)1.92%;FR014報(bao)(bao)(bao)1.95%。3月(yue)(yue)14日(ri),人(ren)民(min)銀(yin)行發布最新的金融(rong)(rong)和(he)社(she)會(hui)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)數據顯(xian)示(shi),2月(yue)(yue)末廣義貨幣(bi)(M2)余額為320.52萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.0%;前兩個月(yue)(yue),人(ren)民(min)幣(bi)貸款增(zeng)(zeng)加6.14萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),其中,2月(yue)(yue)單(dan)月(yue)(yue)新增(zeng)(zeng)人(ren)民(min)幣(bi)貸款近萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan);2月(yue)(yue)末社(she)會(hui)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)規模存量為417.29萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.2%;2月(yue)(yue)社(she)融(rong)(rong)增(zeng)(zeng)量2.24萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同(tong)比多增(zeng)(zeng)7416億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。
貴金(jin)屬:
美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)于(yu)(yu)當地時間3月19日宣布維持(chi)(chi)基準利率(lv)不(bu)變,仍維持(chi)(chi)在(zai)4.25%-4.5%區間,這是自1月底會議以來,美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)再(zai)次(ci)決定維持(chi)(chi)利率(lv)不(bu)變。美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)發(fa)布最新(xin)一(yi)期(qi)(qi)經濟前景(jing)預期(qi)(qi),美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)決策者上調(diao)(diao)了今(jin)年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)通脹預期(qi)(qi),預計(ji)到年(nian)(nian)底,他(ta)們青睞的(de)(de)通脹指標將(jiang)達到2.7%。美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)決策者還(huan)將(jiang)今(jin)年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)經濟增(zeng)長預期(qi)(qi)從2.1%下調(diao)(diao)至1.7%,并(bing)小幅上調(diao)(diao)失業率(lv)預測。美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)決策者的(de)(de)預測顯示(shi),在(zai)19位(wei)決策者中(zhong),四(si)位(wei)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)(wei)2025年(nian)(nian)不(bu)降(jiang)(jiang)息,四(si)位(wei)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)(wei)降(jiang)(jiang)息一(yi)次(ci),九位(wei)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)(wei)降(jiang)(jiang)息兩次(ci),兩位(wei)認(ren)(ren)為(wei)(wei)降(jiang)(jiang)息三次(ci)。與此同時,美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)放(fang)緩(huan)了縮減資產負債(zhai)表(量化(hua)緊縮,QT)的(de)(de)步伐(fa)。美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)主席鮑威爾在(zai)隨后的(de)(de)新(xin)聞發(fa)布會上表示(shi),美(mei)(mei)國(guo)經濟依然強勁,通脹率(lv)在(zai)過去(qu)兩年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)顯著(zhu)下降(jiang)(jiang),但仍高于(yu)(yu)美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)2%的(de)(de)長期(qi)(qi)目(mu)標。他(ta)強調(diao)(diao),美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)的(de)(de)政策路(lu)徑(jing)仍然取決于(yu)(yu)數(shu)據,如果勞動(dong)力市場(chang)意(yi)外(wai)疲(pi)軟(ruan)或通脹下降(jiang)(jiang)速度快于(yu)(yu)預期(qi)(qi),美(mei)(mei)聯(lian)(lian)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)(chu)將(jiang)相(xiang)應(ying)調(diao)(diao)整政策。
螺(luo)(luo)紋(wen)(wen):從Mysteel公布的周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度螺(luo)(luo)紋(wen)(wen)鋼(gang)庫(ku)存(cun)數據(ju)發現(xian),本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)螺(luo)(luo)紋(wen)(wen)鋼(gang)總庫(ku)存(cun)為837.00萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)為853.78萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)去(qu)(qu)庫(ku)16.78萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)去(qu)(qu)庫(ku)6.12萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。近年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期表現(xian)為:2024年(nian)(nian)去(qu)(qu)庫(ku)34.83萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),2023年(nian)(nian)去(qu)(qu)庫(ku)22.41萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),2022年(nian)(nian)去(qu)(qu)庫(ku)7.38萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。此外(wai),本(ben)(ben)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)表需(xu)242.99萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)233.22萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),近年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期水平(ping)為:2024年(nian)(nian)246.44萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),2023年(nian)(nian)322.43萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),2022年(nian)(nian)307.39萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)14日247家鋼(gang)廠高爐(lu)開工率80.58%,環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)1.07個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)4.43個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian);高爐(lu)煉鐵產(chan)(chan)能利(li)用率86.57%,環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)0.03個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)3.99個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian);鋼(gang)廠盈利(li)率53.25%,環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)持平(ping),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)32.04個(ge)(ge)百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)(dian);日均(jun)鐵水產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)230.59萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)0.08萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)去(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)9.77萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。截(jie)至3月(yue)20日當周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou),螺(luo)(luo)紋(wen)(wen)鋼(gang)表需(xu)連續(xu)第(di)(di)(di)五(wu)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia),廠庫(ku)連續(xu)第(di)(di)(di)四(si)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減少(shao),社庫(ku)連續(xu)第(di)(di)(di)二(er)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減少(shao),產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)由增(zeng)轉(zhuan)減。螺(luo)(luo)紋(wen)(wen)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)226.21萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),較上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減少(shao)0.89萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),降(jiang)幅(fu)0.39%;螺(luo)(luo)紋(wen)(wen)廠庫(ku)219.04萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),較上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減少(shao)6.74萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),降(jiang)幅(fu)2.99%;螺(luo)(luo)紋(wen)(wen)社庫(ku)617.96萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),較上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減少(shao)10.04萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),降(jiang)幅(fu)1.60%;螺(luo)(luo)紋(wen)(wen)表需(xu)242.99萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),較上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)9.77萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),增(zeng)幅(fu)4.19%。
鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)石(shi):2025年03月(yue)(yue)(yue)10日(ri)(ri)(ri)-03月(yue)(yue)(yue)16日(ri)(ri)(ri)中國(guo)47港(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)到港(gang)(gang)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)2995.0萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加1089.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun);中國(guo)45港(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)到港(gang)(gang)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)2876.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加1037.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun);北方六港(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)到港(gang)(gang)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1431.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加465.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。澳(ao)洲(zhou)(zhou)巴(ba)西鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)發運總(zong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)2353.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)288.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。澳(ao)洲(zhou)(zhou)發運量(liang)(liang)(liang)1873.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加47.0萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),其(qi)中澳(ao)洲(zhou)(zhou)發往中國(guo)的量(liang)(liang)(liang)1538.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加51.0萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。巴(ba)西發運量(liang)(liang)(liang)480.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)335.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。本(ben)期(qi)全(quan)(quan)球鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)發運總(zong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)2863.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)296.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri),全(quan)(quan)國(guo)45個港(gang)(gang)口(kou)(kou)進口(kou)(kou)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)14420.85萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)157.03萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),45港(gang)(gang)日(ri)(ri)(ri)均(jun)疏(shu)港(gang)(gang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)308.58萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)4.93萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。全(quan)(quan)國(guo)47個港(gang)(gang)口(kou)(kou)進口(kou)(kou)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)為(wei)14895.85萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)192.03萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun);日(ri)(ri)(ri)均(jun)疏(shu)港(gang)(gang)量(liang)(liang)(liang)321.58萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)增(zeng)(zeng)4.50萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri):全(quan)(quan)國(guo)主港(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)礦(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)成交72.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)跌(die)7.59%;遠期(qi)現貨(huo)成交57.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。全(quan)(quan)國(guo)44家(jia)樣本(ben)生鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)企業高爐產(chan)(chan)能利用率為(wei)61.27%,周環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)0.48%,月(yue)(yue)(yue)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)升6.52%。廠內生鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)72.47萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),周環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加6.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),月(yue)(yue)(yue)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加9.26萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)Mysteel統計新口(kou)(kou)徑114家(jia)鋼廠進口(kou)(kou)燒(shao)結(jie)粉(fen)(fen)總(zong)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)2866.33萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)期(qi)減(jian)(jian)68.16萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。進口(kou)(kou)燒(shao)結(jie)粉(fen)(fen)總(zong)日(ri)(ri)(ri)耗116.42萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)5.26萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)消費比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)24.62,環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)期(qi)減(jian)(jian)1.78。原(yuan)口(kou)(kou)徑64家(jia)鋼廠進口(kou)(kou)燒(shao)結(jie)粉(fen)(fen)總(zong)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)1297.38萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)35.23萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。進口(kou)(kou)燒(shao)結(jie)粉(fen)(fen)總(zong)日(ri)(ri)(ri)耗57.17萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)期(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)2.21萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。燒(shao)結(jie)礦(kuang)(kuang)中平均(jun)使用進口(kou)(kou)礦(kuang)(kuang)配比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)86.9%,環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)期(qi)減(jian)(jian)0.08個百分(fen)點(dian)。鋼廠不含稅平均(jun)鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)成本(ben)2425元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)期(qi)減(jian)(jian)21元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。此外(wai),新口(kou)(kou)徑114家(jia)鋼廠剔除長期(qi)停產(chan)(chan)樣本(ben)后不含稅鐵(tie)(tie)(tie)水(shui)成本(ben)2424元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)期(qi)減(jian)(jian)20元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。
雙焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao):本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)全(quan)國(guo)30家獨(du)立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)化(hua)廠(chang)(chang)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)盈(ying)利(li)(li)情況(kuang),全(quan)國(guo)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)盈(ying)利(li)(li)-27元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun);山(shan)西準(zhun)一級焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)盈(ying)利(li)(li)0元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),山(shan)東(dong)準(zhun)一級焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)盈(ying)利(li)(li)20元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),內蒙(meng)(meng)二級焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)盈(ying)利(li)(li)-91元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun),河北(bei)準(zhun)一級焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)平(ping)均(jun)(jun)盈(ying)利(li)(li)32元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。蒙(meng)(meng)古國(guo)進口煉焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)市場(chang)受(shou)制于(yu)高庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)弱需求的核心矛盾(dun),,ER公司(si)蒙(meng)(meng)3精(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)連續60場(chang)流拍后(hou)首次底價800元/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)成交(jiao)。現甘其毛都口岸(an):蒙(meng)(meng)5#原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)880,蒙(meng)(meng)5#精(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)1050,蒙(meng)(meng)4#原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)870,蒙(meng)(meng)3#精(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)1010,1/3焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)720;河北(bei)唐山(shan):蒙(meng)(meng)5#精(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)1270;策克(ke)口岸(an):馬(ma)克(ke)A590,馬(ma)克(ke)西620,歐斯(si)克(ke)A490,歐斯(si)克(ke)B690,南戈(ge)壁A750,南戈(ge)壁B460,泰拉原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)1000,巴音(yin)低硫肥精(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)830,巴音(yin)低硫氣(qi)肥精(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)800;滿都拉口岸(an):主焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)精(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)840,氣(qi)原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)570。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)Mysteel統(tong)計(ji)獨(du)立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企全(quan)樣(yang)(yang)本(ben)(ben)(ben):產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)為70.03%減(jian)0.85%;焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)日均(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)62.46減(jian)0.77,焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)147.26減(jian)6.86,煉焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)總(zong)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)780.51減(jian)7.62,焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)可用(yong)(yong)(yong)天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)9.4天(tian)(tian)(tian)增0.03天(tian)(tian)(tian)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)Mysteel統(tong)計(ji)全(quan)國(guo)230家獨(du)立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企樣(yang)(yang)本(ben)(ben)(ben):產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)為69.31%減(jian)1.07%;焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)日均(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)49.53減(jian)0.76,焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)80.56減(jian)6.76,煉焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)總(zong)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)659.92減(jian)5.8,焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)可用(yong)(yong)(yong)天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)10.0天(tian)(tian)(tian)增0.07天(tian)(tian)(tian)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)Mysteel統(tong)計(ji)獨(du)立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企全(quan)樣(yang)(yang)本(ben)(ben)(ben):產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)為70.03%減(jian)0.85%;焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)日均(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)62.46減(jian)0.77,焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)147.26減(jian)6.86,煉焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)總(zong)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)780.51減(jian)7.62,焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)可用(yong)(yong)(yong)天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)9.4天(tian)(tian)(tian)增0.03天(tian)(tian)(tian)。本(ben)(ben)(ben)周(zhou)Mysteel統(tong)計(ji)全(quan)國(guo)230家獨(du)立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企樣(yang)(yang)本(ben)(ben)(ben):產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)為69.31%減(jian)1.07%;焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)日均(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)49.53減(jian)0.76,焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)80.56減(jian)6.76,煉焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)總(zong)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)659.92減(jian)5.8,焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)可用(yong)(yong)(yong)天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)10.0天(tian)(tian)(tian)增0.07天(tian)(tian)(tian)。終(zhong)端消耗量(liang)未有(you)提升(sheng),鋼廠(chang)(chang)面臨出貨(huo)不(bu)暢(chang)的情況(kuang),因(yin)此選(xuan)擇主動增產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)的鋼廠(chang)(chang)不(bu)多(duo),對焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)采購保持謹慎。獨(du)立(li)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)企在(zai)低利(li)(li)潤壓制下,產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)率(lv)續降(jiang)至(zhi)70%,日均(jun)(jun)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)創10個(ge)月低位(wei),焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)環降(jiang)4.45%至(zhi)147.26萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),而(er)鋼廠(chang)(chang)焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)日產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)增加,庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)小幅下降(jiang)0.75萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)至(zhi)678.41萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。然而(er)港(gang)口焦(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)炭(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)環增6.17%至(zhi)254.48萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),因(yin)此,綜合庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)(cun)(cun)增至(zhi)1080.15萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),達(da)近3年(nian)最高,同(tong)比增幅擴大至(zhi)13.45%。
銅(tong):全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)三大交易所(suo)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存合計(ji)61.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(近6年同(tong)期(qi)最高(gao)),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)-1.6%。截(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)2025年3月(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri),LME銅(tong)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存為(wei)23.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)周(zhou)-9.2%;SMM銅(tong)社會(hui)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存35.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)周(zhou)-3.4%。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri)精廢價(jia)(jia)(jia)差2330元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)周(zhou)+72元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。銅(tong)礦(kuang)(kuang):2024年11月(yue)(yue)(yue)中(zhong)國(guo)銅(tong)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)量為(wei)13.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)-6.6%,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+3.6%;12月(yue)(yue)(yue)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)銅(tong)精礦(kuang)(kuang)產(chan)量為(wei)209.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)+5.0%。截(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)2025年3月(yue)(yue)(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri),精廢價(jia)(jia)(jia)差為(wei)2330元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)+72元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。冶煉:本周(zhou)TC現(xian)貨(huo)價(jia)(jia)(jia)為(wei)-15.9美元(yuan)/磅,續(xu)創歷史新(xin)低。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri)SMM進口銅(tong)精礦(kuang)(kuang)指數(周(zhou))報-15.92美元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)一(yi)期(qi)的(de)(de)-15.83美元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)減少0.09美元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。20%品位(wei)內貿礦(kuang)(kuang)計(ji)價(jia)(jia)(jia)系數為(wei)93%-95%。3月(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)周(zhou)四,SMM全(quan)國(guo)主(zhu)(zhu)流(liu)地區銅(tong)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存較(jiao)(jiao)周(zhou)一(yi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.45萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)35.55萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)四下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)1.25萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),實(shi)現(xian)連續(xu)2周(zhou)周(zhou)度去庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku),目(mu)前(qian)較(jiao)(jiao)年內高(gao)位(wei)回落了(le)(le)2.06萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)(jiao)去年同(tong)期(qi)低3.36萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。具體來看,上(shang)海地區庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存較(jiao)(jiao)周(zhou)一(yi)微增(zeng)0.05萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)23.54萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),江蘇地區庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存增(zeng)加0.12萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)5.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),銅(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)走(zou)高(gao)下(xia)(xia)(xia)游消費(fei)(fei)有(you)所(suo)減弱是令該地區庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存增(zeng)加的(de)(de)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)原(yuan)因,但因進口銅(tong)到(dao)貨(huo)量有(you)限使(shi)得增(zeng)量有(you)限。廣(guang)東地區庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.6至(zhi)(zhi)5.36萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),LME銅(tong)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存3月(yue)(yue)(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存數據233750噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),與3月(yue)(yue)(yue)7日(ri)(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存數據257325噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi),下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)了(le)(le)23575噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun);COMEX銅(tong)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存3月(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存數據92797短(duan)(duan)(duan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),與3月(yue)(yue)(yue)6日(ri)(ri)(ri)的(de)(de)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)存數據92458短(duan)(duan)(duan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi),小幅上(shang)漲了(le)(le)339短(duan)(duan)(duan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)。國(guo)內主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)精銅(tong)桿企業周(zhou)度(3.7-3.13)開(kai)工率環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)。本周(zhou)內在(zai)3.11號銅(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)觸(chu)及短(duan)(duan)(duan)期(qi)內低點,在(zai)當天(tian)銅(tong)桿下(xia)(xia)(xia)游訂(ding)單(dan)點價(jia)(jia)(jia)有(you)明顯(xian)(xian)增(zeng)多,但以周(zhou)平(ping)均視角看,平(ping)均新(xin)增(zeng)訂(ding)單(dan)量仍然(ran)較(jiao)(jiao)少,明顯(xian)(xian)受制于再次(ci)沖高(gao)的(de)(de)銅(tong)價(jia)(jia)(jia),同(tong)時單(dan)日(ri)(ri)(ri)增(zeng)加的(de)(de)點價(jia)(jia)(jia)并未明顯(xian)(xian)帶(dai)動(dong)去庫(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku)(ku),下(xia)(xia)(xia)游提貨(huo)目(mu)前(qian)以前(qian)期(qi)低價(jia)(jia)(jia)訂(ding)單(dan)為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu),終端消費(fei)(fei)也尚無明顯(xian)(xian)回暖(nuan),當前(qian)僅華南(nan)地區在(zai)新(xin)能源、家電等方面訂(ding)單(dan)的(de)(de)帶(dai)動(dong)下(xia)(xia)(xia)可(ke)實(shi)現(xian)消費(fei)(fei)表現(xian)良好。
鋁:氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)北方(fang)現貨綜合報3300元(yuan)跌(die)(die)10元(yuan);全國(guo)(guo)(guo)加(jia)權(quan)指數3286.5元(yuan)跌(die)(die)5元(yuan);山(shan)(shan)(shan)東3260-3340元(yuan)均3300跌(die)(die)30元(yuan);河(he)南(nan)3260-3370元(yuan)均3315跌(die)(die)10元(yuan);山(shan)(shan)(shan)西3250-3350元(yuan)均3300跌(die)(die)10元(yuan);廣(guang)西3360-3400元(yuan)均3380持平(ping);貴州3390-3450元(yuan)均3420跌(die)(die)5元(yuan);新(xin)疆3520-3560元(yuan)均3540持平(ping)。截(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)本周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)四(3月(yue)13日(ri)(ri))全國(guo)(guo)(guo)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)庫存量335.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)2.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。北方(fang)兩大氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)出口集(ji)港(gang)(gang)地(di)(di)已有氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)裝船發運(yun),港(gang)(gang)口庫存明(ming)(ming)顯下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang),2025年2月(yue)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)土礦(kuang)消耗總量達1900萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)干噸(dun)(dun)(dun),日(ri)(ri)均消耗量67.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)干噸(dun)(dun)(dun),較(jiao)1月(yue)日(ri)(ri)均水(shui)平(ping)微(wei)增(zeng)0.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)干噸(dun)(dun)(dun),整體呈現穩中有升態勢。全國(guo)(guo)(guo)冶金級氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量169.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),環(huan)比(bi)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)減少(shao)0.94%,主(zhu)要(yao)系山(shan)(shan)(shan)西、山(shan)(shan)(shan)東地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)部分(fen)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)廠減產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)所至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。截(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)3月(yue)13日(ri)(ri),鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)錠主(zhu)流消費地(di)(di)社(she)會(hui)庫存較(jiao)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)一(yi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)86.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)棒社(she)會(hui)庫存較(jiao)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)一(yi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.59萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)29.75萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)。全國(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)運(yun)行產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)在(zai)4378萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)/年附近(jin)(jin)(jin),開(kai)工率(lv)為95.6%。近(jin)(jin)(jin)期電(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)復產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),運(yun)行產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)走高,產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量方(fang)面(mian)因達產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)時間需要(yao),對本周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)電(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量暫無明(ming)(ming)顯貢獻,周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度電(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量在(zai)85.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)附近(jin)(jin)(jin),較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)增(zeng)長0.06%。2月(yue)份國(guo)(guo)(guo)內電(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量同比(bi)增(zeng)長3.8%,環(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑0.3%。全國(guo)(guo)(guo)冶金級氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)建成總產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)10502萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)/年,較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)持平(ping),運(yun)行總產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)8826萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)/年,較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)調86萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)/年,全國(guo)(guo)(guo)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度開(kai)工率(lv)較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)調0.8個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)84.04%。其中,山(shan)(shan)(shan)東地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度運(yun)行產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)2980萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)/年,周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度開(kai)工率(lv)較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)調1.53個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)91.13%;山(shan)(shan)(shan)西地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度運(yun)行產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)1916萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)/年,周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度開(kai)工率(lv)較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)下(xia)(xia)(xia)調2.34個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)76.66%;河(he)南(nan)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度運(yun)行產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)811萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)/年,周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度開(kai)工率(lv)較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)持平(ping)在(zai)67.62%;廣(guang)西地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)(hua)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度運(yun)行產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)1483萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)/年,周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度開(kai)工率(lv)較(jiao)上(shang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)上(shang)調1.51個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)89.77%。
鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie):目前Ni:1.3%Mc40%鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)市場(chang)價(jia)(jia)(CIF)25美(mei)(mei)元/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun);Ni:1.6%Mc35%鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)基準價(jia)(jia)(HPM)27.47美(mei)(mei)元/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun),市場(chang)價(jia)(jia)(CIF)47.47美(mei)(mei)元/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun);Ni:1.8%Mc35%鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)基準價(jia)(jia)(HPM)34.53美(mei)(mei)元/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun),市場(chang)價(jia)(jia)(CIF)54.53美(mei)(mei)元/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)。本周(zhou)中(zhong)國14港(gang)港(gang)口(kou)鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)庫(ku)存(cun)減(jian)少(shao)44.52萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)至772.5萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun),降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅(fu)5.45%。以鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)產地分(fen),菲律賓鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)769.4萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun),其他國家3.1萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun);以鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)品(pin)位分(fen),低鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)高鐵礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)383.6萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun),中(zhong)高品(pin)位鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)388.9萬濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)。中(zhong)高鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)生鐵產量(liang)15.13萬噸(dun)(dun),環比(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅(fu)8.26%,同比(bi)增加(jia)(jia)(jia)12.43%。印尼(ni)內貿火法(fa)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)3月(yue)主流升(sheng)水為19~20美(mei)(mei)金/濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)噸(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)印尼(ni)蘇拉維西(xi)主礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)區(qu)雨(yu)季將陸(lu)續(xu)結束(shu),印尼(ni)鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)供應呈增加(jia)(jia)(jia)預(yu)期(qi),但(dan)下(xia)游冶煉企業剛需(xu)采購(gou)需(xu)求仍存(cun),且3月(yue)時逢齋月(yue),開齋節前后供應或受到一定影(ying)響,疊加(jia)(jia)(jia)對(dui)于(yu)政策(ce)不確定性的考慮(lv),火法(fa)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)延續(xu)漲價(jia)(jia)趨勢,但(dan)漲幅(fu)相較2月(yue)有一定收(shou)窄。濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)法(fa)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)方面,礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)山(shan)在(zai)配額有限(xian)情況(kuang)下(xia),傾向于(yu)優先出(chu)(chu)售利潤較好的火法(fa)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang),主動降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低濕(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)法(fa)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)出(chu)(chu)售量(liang)。
豆(dou)粕
3月20日,生意社大豆基準(zhun)價為(wei)4180.00元(yuan)/噸,與本月初持(chi)平。
3月20日(ri),生意(yi)社豆粕基準(zhun)價為(wei)3402.00元/噸(dun),與本月初(3722.00元/噸(dun))相比,下降(jiang)了-8.60%。
海關總署數(shu)據顯示:2024年(nian)(nian)1-13月,中(zhong)國進(jin)口(kou)大(da)豆數(shu)量10503.2萬噸(dun),創歷史新(xin)高,同(tong)(tong)比2023年(nian)(nian)增長(chang)6.51%,進(jin)口(kou)大(da)豆總金額527億美元,同(tong)(tong)比下降10.98%(國際(ji)大(da)豆價格(ge)走低)。2025年(nian)(nian)1-3月,中(zhong)國進(jin)口(kou)大(da)豆數(shu)1360.6萬噸(dun),較(jiao)2024年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增長(chang)4.4%。
進(jin)口大豆到國內港口C&F報價。
單位:美元(yuan)/噸
類別 | 價格類型 | 3月(yue)20日 | 3月19日 | 3月18日(ri) | 3月(yue)17日 | 3月14日(ri) |
美灣大豆 (4月船期) | C&F價(jia)格(ge) | 448 | 448 | 448 | 448 | 448 |
美西大豆 (4月船期) | C&F價格 | 449 | 449 | 449 | 449 | 449 |
巴(ba)西大豆 (4月船期) | C&F價格 | 441 | 440 | 433 | 434 | 436 |
國家糧油(you)信息(xi)中(zhong)心消息(xi):監測(ce)顯(xian)示,截至 3 月(yue) 14 日當周(zhou),國內主要油(you)廠(chang)大豆(dou)壓(ya)榨(zha)量 163 萬(wan)噸(dun),周(zhou)環比上升 11萬(wan)噸(dun),月(yue)環比下降 31 萬(wan)噸(dun),同比下降 1 萬(wan)噸(dun),較過去三年均(jun)值(zhi)上升 1 萬(wan)噸(dun)。本周(zhou)部分油(you)廠(chang)大豆(dou)庫存趨緊、開機(ji)率(lv)可能維持低(di)位,預計大豆(dou)壓(ya)榨(zha)量約 140 萬(wan)噸(dun)。
美國(guo)(guo)農業部3月供需報告:美國(guo)(guo)大(da)豆(dou)
3月美國2024/2025年度大豆種植面積預(yu)期8710萬(wan)英畝(mu),1月預(yu)期為8710萬(wan)英畝(mu),環比持(chi)平;
3月美國2024/2025年度大豆收獲面(mian)積預(yu)期8610萬英(ying)畝,1月預(yu)期為(wei)8610萬英(ying)畝,環比持平(ping);
3月(yue)美國2024/2025年度大豆單產預期50.7蒲式耳(er)/英畝,1月(yue)預期為50.7蒲式耳(er)/英畝,環(huan)比(bi)持平;
3月美國(guo)2024/2025年度(du)大豆產量預期(qi)43.66億(yi)蒲式(shi)耳,1月預期(qi)為(wei)43.66億(yi)蒲式(shi)耳,環比(bi)持平;
3月美(mei)國(guo)2024/2025年度大(da)豆總供應(ying)量(liang)預(yu)期47.29億蒲式(shi)耳(er),1月預(yu)期為47.29億蒲式(shi)耳(er),環(huan)比持平;
3月(yue)美(mei)國2024/2025年度大(da)豆壓榨量預期24.1億蒲式耳,1月(yue)預期為24.1億蒲式耳,環(huan)比持(chi)平;
3月美國2024/2025年度大豆出口量預期18.25億(yi)蒲式耳,1月預期為18.25億(yi)蒲式耳,環比(bi)持平;
3月美國(guo)2024/2025年度大豆總消耗量(liang)預期43.49億蒲式耳,1月預期為43.49億蒲式耳,環比持平(ping);
3月(yue)美(mei)國2024/2025年度(du)大豆(dou)期末庫存預期3.8億蒲式耳,1月(yue)預期為(wei)3.8億蒲式耳,環比持(chi)平。
美大豆周度出(chu)口(kou)報告(gao):截至2025年(nian)3月13日當周,美國2024/25年(nian)度大豆凈銷(xiao)售量為352,600噸,較上周減(jian)少53%,較四周均值減(jian)少29%。
據美(mei)國(guo)農業部(USDA)公(gong)布的(de)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)檢(jian)驗(yan)(yan)報告,截至3月13日(ri)當周(zhou),美(mei)國(guo)大豆出(chu)口(kou)(kou)檢(jian)驗(yan)(yan)量(liang)為64.67萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun),上周(zhou)修(xiu)正后為85.36萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)。2024/25年(nian)(nian)度(du)(始于9月1日(ri))美(mei)國(guo)大豆出(chu)口(kou)(kou)檢(jian)驗(yan)(yan)累計總量(liang)為3909.82萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun),上年(nian)(nian)同期3578.22萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun),同比增加9.27%。
巴西(xi)谷物出(chu)口商協會(ANEC)表示,2025年3月(yue)份(fen)巴西(xi)玉米出(chu)口量估計(ji)為413,401噸(dun)(dun),略微高(gao)于一周前預(yu)估的412,700噸(dun)(dun)。3月(yue)份(fen)的出(chu)口量仍低(di)于2月(yue)份(fen)的129萬噸(dun)(dun),但是顯著高(gao)于去年3月(yue)份(fen)的140,561噸(dun)(dun)。
玉米
3月20日,生意社(she)玉(yu)米基準價為2212.86元/噸(dun)(dun),與(yu)本月初(2127.14元/噸(dun)(dun))相比(bi),上漲了4.03%。
據中(zhong)國海關數據顯示:2025年1-2月玉米進口量僅18萬噸,較去年同(tong)(tong)期的620萬噸驟降(jiang)97.1%(2024年同(tong)(tong)期約620萬噸)。2024年我國玉米進口總量為1364萬噸,同(tong)(tong)比大幅下降(jiang)49.7%。
據Mysteel農產品調研顯(xian)示(shi),截至(zhi)2025年3月7日,北方(fang)四(si)港(gang)玉米(mi)庫(ku)存共(gong)計505.8萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),周(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)增加(jia)1.5萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun);當周(zhou)北方(fang)四(si)港(gang)下海量共(gong)計58.6萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),周(zhou)環(huan)比(bi)減(jian)少31.50萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)。 廣(guang)東港(gang)內貿玉米(mi)庫(ku)存共(gong)計186.3萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)上周(zhou)增加(jia)30.00萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun);外貿庫(ku)存7.8萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)上周(zhou)持平;進口高(gao)粱50.3萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)上周(zhou)減(jian)少9.50萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun);進口大麥64.7萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)上周(zhou)增加(jia)2.90萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)。
美(mei)國農(nong)業部(bu)3月供需報告:美(mei)國玉米
3月美(mei)國(guo)2024/2025年度玉米種植面積預(yu)期9060萬英畝,1月預(yu)期為9060萬英畝,環比持(chi)平;
3月美國2024/2025年度玉(yu)米收獲面積預期8290萬英畝,1月預期為8290萬英畝,環比(bi)持平;
3月(yue)美(mei)國2024/2025年(nian)度玉米(mi)單產(chan)預期179.3蒲式耳/英畝,1月(yue)預期為179.3蒲式耳/英畝,環比(bi)持平;
3月美國2024/2025年度玉米產量預期(qi)148.67億蒲(pu)式(shi)耳,1月預期(qi)為148.67億蒲(pu)式(shi)耳,環比持平;
3月美國(guo)2024/2025年(nian)度玉(yu)米總供應量預期(qi)166.55億蒲式(shi)耳,1月預期(qi)為(wei)166.55億蒲式(shi)耳,環比持(chi)平;
3月(yue)美國2024/2025年(nian)度玉(yu)米總消耗量預期151.15億(yi)蒲式耳,1月(yue)預期為151.15億(yi)蒲式耳,環(huan)比持(chi)平;
3月美國2024/2025年度玉米期(qi)末(mo)庫存預(yu)期(qi)15.4億蒲(pu)式(shi)耳,1月預(yu)期(qi)為15.4億蒲(pu)式(shi)耳,環比持平。
據(ju)美(mei)國農業(ye)部(bu)(USDA)公布的(de)出口銷(xiao)售報告(gao),截至2025年3月13日當周(zhou),美(mei)國2024/25年度玉(yu)米凈銷(xiao)售量為(wei)1,496,700噸,較上周(zhou)增加55%,較四周(zhou)均值增加45%。
據美國(guo)農業部(bu)(USDA)公(gong)布的出口檢驗報告(gao),截(jie)至3月13日當周,美國(guo)玉米出口檢驗量為(wei)(wei)165.86萬(wan)噸,上周修正后為(wei)(wei)184.42萬(wan)噸,2024/25年(nian)度美國(guo)玉米出口檢驗累計總量為(wei)(wei)3076.14萬(wan)噸,上一年(nian)度同期(qi)2319.04萬(wan)噸。
巴西谷物出(chu)口(kou)商協(xie)會(ANEC)表示(shi),2025年(nian)3月(yue)(yue)份巴西玉(yu)米(mi)出(chu)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)估計為413,401噸(dun),略微高于(yu)一周前預(yu)估的412,700噸(dun)。3月(yue)(yue)份的出(chu)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)仍低于(yu)2月(yue)(yue)份的129萬噸(dun),但是顯著高于(yu)去年(nian)3月(yue)(yue)份的140,561噸(dun)。
原油(you)
3月(yue)20日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)白宮新(xin)聞發言人表(biao)(biao)示,特朗(lang)(lang)普(pu)希望油(you)價(jia)繼續下(xia)跌。3月(yue)15日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)訊,美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)總統特朗(lang)(lang)普(pu)將于(yu)下(xia)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)在(zai)白宮會見石(shi)油(you)行業(ye)(ye)高管(guan)制(zhi)定(ding)促(cu)進(jin)(jin)國(guo)(guo)(guo)內能(neng)(neng)(neng)源生產(chan)的(de)計劃;3月(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri),國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源署(IEA)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)四在(zai)一份(fen)月(yue)度(du)石(shi)油(you)市場報告中表(biao)(biao)示,今年(nian)全球石(shi)油(you)供應可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)超過(guo)需(xu)(xu)求約60萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri),該機構(gou)下(xia)調了2025年(nian)的(de)需(xu)(xu)求增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)預(yu)(yu)測。國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源署(IEA)表(biao)(biao)示,如(ru)果歐佩(pei)克+延長(chang)(chang)其(qi)(qi)逐步取消減產(chan)的(de)計劃,并且未(wei)能(neng)(neng)(neng)控制(zhi)生產(chan)過(guo)剩,那么這(zhe)一盈余可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)會進(jin)(jin)一步增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加40萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)。國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源署(IEA)將其(qi)(qi)2025年(nian)的(de)石(shi)油(you)需(xu)(xu)求增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)預(yu)(yu)測下(xia)調了7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri),至(zhi)100萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)左右,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)主要(yao)受(shou)亞(ya)洲,特別是中國(guo)(guo)(guo)石(shi)化行業(ye)(ye)的(de)推動(dong)。美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)至(zhi)3月(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)EIA戰(zhan)(zhan)略石(shi)油(you)儲(chu)備(bei)庫存(cun)(cun)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加27.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)至(zhi)3.959億(yi)桶(tong)(tong),增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅0.07%為(wei)(wei)2022年(nian)11月(yue)4日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)以(yi)來(lai)最(zui)(zui)高,原(yuan)油(you)出(chu)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)2024年(nian)12月(yue)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)以(yi)來(lai)最(zui)(zui)高,除卻戰(zhan)(zhan)略儲(chu)備(bei)的(de)商業(ye)(ye)原(yuan)油(you)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)2023年(nian)3月(yue)24日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)以(yi)來(lai)最(zui)(zui)低,除卻戰(zhan)(zhan)略儲(chu)備(bei)的(de)商業(ye)(ye)原(yuan)油(you)庫存(cun)(cun)為(wei)(wei)2024年(nian)7月(yue)12日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)以(yi)來(lai)最(zui)(zui)高。消息面上,由于(yu)需(xu)(xu)求開始季節性(xing)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang),歐佩(pei)克+決定(ding)從4月(yue)份(fen)開始部分增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產(chan);同時,美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)加拿(na)大、墨西哥和中國(guo)(guo)(guo)征收(shou)關(guan)稅以(yi)及中國(guo)(guo)(guo)報復性(xing)關(guan)稅,美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)暫(zan)停對(dui)烏克蘭(lan)提供軍(jun)事援助。美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)至(zhi)3月(yue)14日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)石(shi)油(you)鉆(zhan)井(jing)總數487口(kou)(kou),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)486口(kou)(kou);當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)天然氣(qi)鉆(zhan)井(jing)總數100口(kou)(kou),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)101口(kou)(kou),當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API原(yuan)油(you)庫存(cun)(cun)459.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)88.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)424.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong);當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API投產(chan)原(yuan)油(you)量(liang)0.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)37.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri);當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API成品油(you)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)-16.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)18.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)/日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri);當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API原(yuan)油(you)進(jin)(jin)口(kou)(kou)7.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)38.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong);當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API取暖油(you)庫存(cun)(cun)44.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)2.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong);當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API精煉油(you)庫存(cun)(cun)-214.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)-26.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)42.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong);當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API汽油(you)庫存(cun)(cun)-170.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)-235萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)-456萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong);當(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)(dang)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)API庫欣(xin)原(yuan)油(you)庫存(cun)(cun)-114.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong),前(qian)(qian)值(zhi)(zhi)-119.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)桶(tong)(tong)。
現(xian)貨方(fang)面(mian),3月(yue)20日,華東(dong)(dong)現(xian)貨PTA收漲至(zhi)4845元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)。國內供需維持偏緊格局,整體(ti)估值偏低(di),然下(xia)游聚(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)端(duan)表現(xian)不(bu)及預(yu)期(qi),產(chan)銷難(nan)以持續,華東(dong)(dong)PTA現(xian)貨商(shang)談價(jia)格在4800-4900。。截(jie)至(zhi)3月(yue)7日,行業(ye)平(ping)(ping)均開工(gong)(gong)為73.6%,環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-4.6%;國內PTA周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)產(chan)量(liang)133.68萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)-2.43萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun);下(xia)游聚(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)行業(ye)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度平(ping)(ping)均開工(gong)(gong)87.84%,較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)+0.48%;PTA社會(hui)庫存(cun)量(liang)約在499.45萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-8.16萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun);本周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)期(qi)聚(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)行業(ye)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)產(chan)量(liang):148.33萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),較(jiao)上周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)+1.22萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)漲0.83%。中國聚(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)行業(ye)周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)度平(ping)(ping)均產(chan)能利用(yong)率:87.84%,環(huan)(huan)比(bi)漲0.48%。截(jie)至(zhi)3月(yue)7日,據隆眾資訊生產(chan)成本計算模型,PTA成本平(ping)(ping)均在4620.47元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-144.46元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),現(xian)貨周(zhou)(zhou)(zhou)均加工(gong)(gong)費(fei)323元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)(+55);截(jie)至(zhi)3月(yue)7日,PTA社會(hui)庫存(cun)542.3萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降5.8萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)。聚(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)工(gong)(gong)廠原料庫存(cun)9.90天,較(jiao)上月(yue)末-3.88%。終端(duan)新增訂單有限,江浙織機開工(gong)(gong)緩(huan)步提升,聚(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)產(chan)銷整體(ti)平(ping)(ping)淡,長(chang)絲庫存(cun)繼續累積(ji),聚(ju)酯(zhi)(zhi)負荷低(di)于預(yu)期(qi),下(xia)游需求恢復偏慢。
純堿
3月(yue)(yue)19日,國內純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)市場行情暫(zan)顯平穩,市場成交氣(qi)氛一般。截至(zhi)(zhi)目(mu)前,華東地區(qu)輕質(zhi)純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)價(jia)格(ge)在(zai)(zai)1400-1500元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),重質(zhi)純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)價(jia)格(ge)在(zai)(zai)1500-1650元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun);華中地區(qu)輕質(zhi)純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)價(jia)格(ge)在(zai)(zai)1300-1500元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),重質(zhi)純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)價(jia)格(ge)在(zai)(zai)1550-1600元(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)。青海地區(qu)個別(bie)純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)裝置減(jian)(jian)量運行,供應端維持低(di)位調整;下(xia)(xia)游(you)企業采購仍以低(di)價(jia)剛需(xu)為主,對(dui)高(gao)價(jia)純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)接受度不高(gao)。鋼聯(lian)數據顯示,3月(yue)(yue)14日當周純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)整體開工率為83.29%,環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)5.75個百分點,同比(bi)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)7.72個百分點;周度產(chan)量為69.79萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)5%,同比(bi)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)6.59%。供給方(fang)面,據隆(long)眾(zhong)資訊(xun),截至(zhi)(zhi)3月(yue)(yue)10日,純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)廠(chang)家(jia)周度產(chan)量69.79萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)3.68萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)。下(xia)(xia)游(you)浮法玻璃開工率變動不大。庫存來看,3月(yue)(yue)10日,國內純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)廠(chang)家(jia)總庫存173.88萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),較上周四減(jian)(jian)少(shao)(shao)(shao)2.11萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),跌幅(fu)1.20%。輕質(zhi)純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)84萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)1.53萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),跌幅(fu)1.79%。重質(zhi)純(chun)(chun)(chun)堿(jian)89.88萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.58萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)0.64%。
玻璃
3月20日(ri)(ri)(ri)數(shu)據(ju),浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)均(jun)(jun)價較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)周(zhou)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)20元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)1263元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),以天(tian)(tian)(tian)然氣為(wei)(wei)燃(ran)料(liao)的(de)浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)周(zhou)均(jun)(jun)利(li)潤(run)-188.74元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),創近5個(ge)月低位,環比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)25.71元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun);以石油焦(jiao)為(wei)(wei)燃(ran)料(liao)的(de)浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)周(zhou)均(jun)(jun)利(li)潤(run)-50.24元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),為(wei)(wei)2023年以來最低,環比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)25.71元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun);以煤制氣為(wei)(wei)燃(ran)料(liao)的(de)浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)周(zhou)均(jun)(jun)利(li)潤(run)環比(bi)增(zeng)1.46元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)59.8元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)。現貨方(fang)面,據(ju)金十數(shu)據(ju),截(jie)(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)3月19日(ri)(ri)(ri),國(guo)內5mm浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)市(shi)場整(zheng)(zheng)體呈現弱(ruo)勢(shi)震蕩(dang)態(tai)勢(shi)。華(hua)東(dong)地區市(shi)場重心小(xiao)幅(fu)回調,價格(ge)(ge)上(shang)(shang)(shang)漲10元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)1360元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),下(xia)(xia)游(you)采購意愿略有回暖;山東(dong)地區廠家(jia)出貨情況(kuang)較(jiao)好,報價上(shang)(shang)(shang)調20元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸(dun),市(shi)場交(jiao)投(tou)尚可。華(hua)北沙河地區價格(ge)(ge)基(ji)本穩定(ding),部分小(xiao)板規格(ge)(ge)價格(ge)(ge)略有松動;其他地區多數(shu)企(qi)業(ye)仍以保價為(wei)(wei)主(zhu),整(zheng)(zheng)體成交(jiao)氛圍依(yi)舊偏淡。當前浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)市(shi)場供(gong)需矛(mao)盾仍存(cun),價格(ge)(ge)維持窄幅(fu)波動。供(gong)應方(fang)面,3月20日(ri)(ri)(ri)當周(zhou)浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)行業(ye)平均(jun)(jun)開工(gong)率(lv)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)0.24%至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)75.85%,而平均(jun)(jun)產能利(li)用率(lv)環增(zeng)0.37%至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)79.08%,3月20日(ri)(ri)(ri)全(quan)國(guo)浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)日(ri)(ri)(ri)產量為(wei)(wei)15.85萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),比(bi)13日(ri)(ri)(ri)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)0.22%,但(dan)本周(zhou)全(quan)國(guo)浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)產量111萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),創兩個(ge)半月高位,環比(bi)增(zeng)加0.48%,但(dan)同比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)了9.65%。截(jie)(jie)止到3月20日(ri)(ri)(ri),全(quan)國(guo)浮(fu)法(fa)(fa)玻(bo)璃(li)樣本企(qi)業(ye)總庫存(cun)環比(bi)減(jian)少(shao)(shao)1.13%至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)6946萬(wan)(wan)重箱(xiang),同比(bi)增(zeng)幅(fu)縮減(jian)至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)9.19%。折庫存(cun)天(tian)(tian)(tian)數(shu)31.3天(tian)(tian)(tian),較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)期-0.7天(tian)(tian)(tian)。
苯乙(yi)烯
現(xian)貨方(fang)面,3月(yue)(yue)(yue)20日(ri),生意(yi)社(she)苯(ben)乙(yi)烯基(ji)準(zhun)價為(wei)8374.00元/噸(dun)。國(guo)內(nei)供(gong)(gong)應有縮(suo)量預期(qi),供(gong)(gong)需維持偏緊格局。供(gong)(gong)應方(fang)面,從現(xian)有檢修計劃看,供(gong)(gong)應依然充足。據隆眾(zhong)資訊(xun)截(jie)至3月(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri),中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)苯(ben)乙(yi)烯工廠(chang)整體產量在34.32萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),較上期(qi)降0.37萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)-1.07%;工廠(chang)產能(neng)(neng)利(li)用率(lv)74.92%,環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)-0.82%。按計劃表(biao),苯(ben)乙(yi)烯檢修損失量將逐步增(zeng)長,并在4月(yue)(yue)(yue)達到峰值,若計劃內(nei)檢修能(neng)(neng)如期(qi)兌現(xian),苯(ben)乙(yi)烯開工率(lv)將于3月(yue)(yue)(yue)底(di)開始不斷下滑(hua);截(jie)至3月(yue)(yue)(yue)13日(ri),中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)苯(ben)乙(yi)烯工廠(chang)樣(yang)本(ben)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)量24.62萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),較上一(yi)周期(qi)減少0.18萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)減少0.71%,樣(yang)本(ben)企業工廠(chang)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)小幅(fu)(fu)減少;截(jie)至3月(yue)(yue)(yue)16日(ri),華東(dong)港口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)17.80萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),較前一(yi)周減少1.21萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun);華東(dong)港口(kou)貿易(yi)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)14.89萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),較前一(yi)周減少0.97萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),港口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)逐步見頂回落;下游EPS產能(neng)(neng)利(li)用率(lv)56.34%,環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)-6%;PS產能(neng)(neng)利(li)用率(lv)65.5%,環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)+2.6%;ABS產能(neng)(neng)利(li)用率(lv)73%,環(huan)(huan)(huan)比(bi)-1.4%。截(jie)至3月(yue)(yue)(yue)10日(ri),江蘇苯(ben)乙(yi)烯港口(kou)樣(yang)本(ben)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)總(zong)量18.6萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),較上周期(qi)減少0.81萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),幅(fu)(fu)度(du)-4.17%。商(shang)品量庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)在12.4萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),較上周期(qi)減少0.56萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),幅(fu)(fu)度(du)-4.32%。
甲醇
現貨(huo)方面(mian),3月(yue)(yue)20日,江蘇(su)太倉甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)現貨(huo)成交平均(jun)價2693元/噸(dun),較(jiao)3月(yue)(yue)19日漲(zhang)38元/噸(dun)。3月(yue)(yue)14日至20日,國(guo)內(nei)甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)產量1853635噸(dun),較(jiao)上(shang)周減15490噸(dun);裝(zhuang)置產能(neng)(neng)利用(yong)率(lv)為85.27%,環(huan)比降(jiang)0.92%;下(xia)游需(xu)求端部(bu)分品種本周產能(neng)(neng)利用(yong)率(lv):烯(xi)烴89.31%,環(huan)比降(jiang)1.49%;甲(jia)(jia)醛48.69%,環(huan)比降(jiang)0.03%;醋酸(suan)87.83%,環(huan)比升5.25%;MTBE61.72%,環(huan)比降(jiang)1.29%。截至2025年3月(yue)(yue)19日,中國(guo)甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)港(gang)口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)總量在(zai)(zai)(zai)80.01萬(wan)噸(dun),較(jiao)上(shang)一期數(shu)據減少11.1萬(wan)噸(dun)。其(qi)中,華東地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)去庫(ku)(ku)(ku),庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)減少8.7萬(wan)噸(dun);華南(nan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)去庫(ku)(ku)(ku),庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)減少2.4萬(wan)噸(dun)。本周甲(jia)(jia)醇(chun)港(gang)口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)繼續(xu)(xu)如(ru)期大幅去庫(ku)(ku)(ku),顯性(xing)外輪卸貨(huo)維持低(di)位,江蘇(su)沿江主流區(qu)(qu)域在(zai)(zai)(zai)大型終端汽運(yun)提貨(huo)助力下(xia)提貨(huo)量明顯增加(jia)(jia),南(nan)京地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)大型終端則仍(reng)有(you)較(jiao)多管輸原料來自于非顯性(xing)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)區(qu)(qu);浙江地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)寧波碼頭(tou)卸貨(huo)速度仍(reng)較(jiao)一般(ban),但剛(gang)(gang)需(xu)穩定(ding)消耗下(xia)同步去庫(ku)(ku)(ku)。本周華南(nan)港(gang)口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)繼續(xu)(xu)去庫(ku)(ku)(ku)。廣東地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)周內(nei)進口(kou)及內(nei)貿均(jun)有(you)補充,主流庫(ku)(ku)(ku)區(qu)(qu)提貨(huo)在(zai)(zai)(zai)周邊市場需(xu)求提振下(xia)有(you)所增加(jia)(jia),使得(de)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)(cun)下(xia)降(jiang)。福建地(di)(di)(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)周內(nei)暫無船只抵(di)港(gang),當地(di)(di)(di)(di)下(xia)游剛(gang)(gang)需(xu)消耗,從(cong)而呈現去庫(ku)(ku)(ku)。
免責聲明:以(yi)上(shang)信息(xi)、意(yi)見不(bu)構(gou)成(cheng)對(dui)(dui)具體(ti)(ti)證券(quan)期貨或金(jin)融(rong)工(gong)具在(zai)具體(ti)(ti)價位、具體(ti)(ti)時(shi)點(dian)、具體(ti)(ti)市場(chang)表現的(de)(de)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)建議。以(yi)上(shang)信息(xi)、意(yi)見在(zai)任(ren)何時(shi)候均不(bu)構(gou)成(cheng)對(dui)(dui)任(ren)何人的(de)(de)具有針(zhen)對(dui)(dui)性的(de)(de)、指導具體(ti)(ti)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)操作意(yi)見,投資(zi)(zi)(zi)者(zhe)應當對(dui)(dui)以(yi)上(shang)信息(xi)和意(yi)見進行(xing)評估,根據(ju)自身情況(kuang)自主做出(chu)投資(zi)(zi)(zi)決策(ce)并自行(xing)承(cheng)擔投資(zi)(zi)(zi)風險。